20190901 Hurricane Dorian. Category 5! "Strongest Hurricane in Modern History".

Update: 8:00pm, Advisory #34 — Hurricane Dorian is a rare Category 5 Hurricane, with 185mph winds, gusts to 220mph, moving west at 5mph, and strengthening pressure down to 915 millibars (seems to have stabilized/no longer decreasing pressure and strengthening). The larger update is from September 1, at 8:00pm Eastern Time. The Landfall Update below is from NHC (12:45pm). The latest report from the National Hurricane Center is dire. Hurricane watches and warnings have been posted for almost all of the eastern coast of Florida. As of 10:45am, mandatory evacuation for Palm Beach County, Zone B. Seven shelters have opened, some are pet friendly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205313_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/145814_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

The Bahamas are going to receive significant damage. The clouds have that “belly of the beast” look about them. Everyone in the Bahamas understands how severe this hurricane will be. Send a prayer

https://twitter.com/_Montana_Bound_/status/1168164472185335808

For the US mainland, we’re still not sure where the storm will come ashore but Georgia and the Carolinas are now on watch. MOST of the forecasting indicates the storm will turn north sooner than expected…. or will it?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_key_messages+png/113611_key_messages_sm.png

Sadie finds the greatest videos for this hurricane.

From the White House.

Ken Graham is Head of the National Hurricane Center and I’m in love with this guy. He’s EVERYWHERE on the news. Working hard, no complaints, calm, cool, and collected + extremely informative. He gets a raise!!

Almost everyone who lives in the southeast has a family “plan” for hurricanes. An exceptionally good Hurricane checklist can be found HERE: https://www.surfandsunshine.com/how-to-prepare-for-a-hurricane-with-hurricane-preparedness-checklist/

We can add things like: Make sure you do ALL your laundry NOW and refill all medications. A well stocked, expanded, home first aid kit. An extra set of blades for a chainsaw is a Godsend. Bleach and clean all the tubs in your home and fill with water before the storm hits (if you’re staying). Right now, bake – cookies, brownies, granola bars for a healthy boost…… and share with your local fireman/police. Right now, FREEZE extra water in big containers using milk jugs/2 liter bottles, etc., to make big blocks of ice. Extra propane for the grill and a big pot to boil water.

Best personal hint: We took about 100 dish clothes/wash clothes and wet them with fresh water, added a few drops of bleach, sealed them in Glad Bags and put them in the freezer. In the aftermath, we used those towels everywhere.

Many residents are new to the state and we strongly encourage they prepare and/or rely on neighbors who are a little more experienced with hurricane preparations. KNOW your neighbors, you won’t get through the aftermath of a hurricane without help from a few friendly souls.

Please feel free to add tips, tricks, memes, hints, prayers related to Hurricane Dorian. Thank you for your help.

The President is at Camp David, Pence will travel to Poland. The President will return for a press conference at FEMA on Sunday, about 12:30pm

Take care, God Bless, Love to all. This one is serious. Storm surge in the Bahamas is expected to be 15-20feet high. Waves on top of storm surge, according to Weather Channel are topping 40′ high.

Dark rainy cloud coming towards Grand Turk Island (Turks and Caicos Islands).
https://twitter.com/_Montana_Bound_/status/1168161485039833088

Check out the video from the EYE of DORIAN.

https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1168220497412337664
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mollypitcher5

smiley2
mollypitcher5

Ugh.. prayers for this island’s people

phoenixrising37

“Like” for the prayers………………………….
not for the devastation.

mollypitcher5

exactly.
I hope posting the vids doesn’t offend anyone. I want to see what we’re hearing about..plus I try to get it in my head what the possibles are for SC

phoenixrising37

No offense Molly, we want to KNOW what is happening, however horrific.

Dora

phoenixrising37

again, “like” for the ‘movement to a safe place (where would that be on an island!)’
NOT the devastation

Linda

What’s really frightening for the Bahamas is that they’re going to be under that constant pounding of Dorian until sometime Tuesday. That’s a long time to try to stay safe.

phoenixrising37

I had no idea “until sometime Tuesday” !!! (I read, but my psyche can take in only a little horror at the time)

Dora

mollypitcher5

ForGodandCountry

ForGodandCountry

Photos from mission last night. Notice “stadium effect” of eyewall.

phoenixrising37

It’s a monster, isn’t it FG&C …………………..

ozzytrumpster

Louder than the storm is gonna be the wahh climate change wailing

duchess01

duchess01

duchess01

phoenixrising37

Got your roller skates on, do you Duchess ?
On a roll today… thank you sweet lady… appreciate all you do.

duchess01

Yes, but I could use some butter, pr – lol

phoenixrising37

you’re too funny! Been around Marica a lot, have you !

duchess01

She does rub off on one occasionally – lol

duchess01

duchess01

Sadie Slays

“Dorian is the fifth Cat 5 in the Atlantic since 2016, joining Michael (2018), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), and Matthew (2016). This makes 2019 the fourth year in a row the Atlantic basin has had at least one hurricane reach Cat 5 strength, beating the previous record, a three-year stretch from 2003 to 2005. Including Dorian, there have been 35 Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”
Mmmhmmm.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Historic-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Dorian-Pounding-Bahamas-185-mph-Winds

ForGodandCountry

bias confirmation
Mmmhmmm.

andyocoregon

Marsh Harbor, Bahamas very recently

smiley2

nasty…the tail end, after the eye passes over, is often much worse impact than the front of the thing….brutal, slow and violent…relentless.

Sadie Slays

Interesting digits:
“In the 8-hour period ending at 12:45 pm EDT Sunday, Dorian put on a rare show of rapid intensification—its already-formidable 150 mph winds increased to 185 mph, and the central pressure dropped from 934 to 911 mb.”
911 mb!
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Historic-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Dorian-Pounding-Bahamas-185-mph-Winds

rf121

Once these weather guessers start looking at the sun they may start understanding some of these “unexpected” intensification’s.Two large coronal holes were earth facing this week increasing the solar wind which has been shown to intensify weather events when the wind hits our atmosphere.

ozzytrumpster

Stop talking real science. You’ll upset the climate numpties

ForGodandCountry

Didnt you know? The Deep State can control sun spots, too, not just create and aim hurricanes.
/S

ozzytrumpster

So THIS is what happens when your I AM god complex gets out of control

gil00
andyocoregon

Not a bad idea. Many people who live in manufactured homes in the midwest use over-the-roof tie downs for strong storms and tornadoes.

mollypitcher5

If I ever make it to Carolina to live..I’d consider this..I’ve read that if the wind or object breaks windows the pressure build and blows out the roof /walls. Something like this looks stupid but it might be a good idea. Don’t think it could hurt!

smiley2

I agree !

gil00

I thought it was a joke but some comments say it may work.

ozzytrumpster

Seen tie down point into concrete pads at caravan parks

🦋🦋bflyjesusgrl🦋🦋

Hey don’t laugh! I lost my little Lifetime shed in Ike. When I put up a new one, I put those tie downs on it, not gonna lose this one, it was $1,000!!! Now I do agree, if you need those on your house, then you got BIGGER problems, LOL 😂😂

mollypitcher5

Like Cheryl’s she shed? lolol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ffs4gSJjjV4

🦋🦋bflyjesusgrl🦋🦋

Lol! The shed I lost was a small 3’x8’, plus one side of fence, both totaled way less than my deductible. So no She Shed claim for me! 😊😊 A New 10’x12’ with tie downs I got! 😉 I bought materials and paid my nephew to fix my fence, cuz my dogs were getting out, then my neighbors went and replaced the whole dang thing on their insurance claim AFTER I spent all that money!! They didn’t even tell me and I found my dogs wandering loose while the whole thing was torn down, heffers!😡 So glad they moved!!

andyocoregon

I follow this guy’s flights in his paramotor on YouTube and a few months ago he flew over the Bahama Islands. This is similar to a drone camera flight, but it’s narrated by the pilot.
So, in other words, this is the Before video. It will be interesting to see the After videos in the weeks to come.

phoenixrising37

well now, ain’t that sumpin’ …………………
and upthread, Sadie……….. 911 mb ?
Being unfamiliar with term “mb” …………… I looked it up. Here’s explanation given for stats during Hurricane Michael
“… Along with wind speed, atmospheric pressure is a measure of storm intensity. In general, the lower a storm’s central pressure, the higher the winds. Michael’s central pressure of 919 millibars (mb) at landfall is the third lowest on record for a landfalling U. S. hurricane since reliable records began in 1900, trailing only the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille of 1969 (900 mb).”
where’s suspicious cat ?

phoenixrising37

Sadie,
we may some need some translation here – ‘course 911 is itself a trigger… but the mb for LANDFALL for Dorian is pretty dang low!

Sadie Slays

The cabal uses “91” or “911” as a calling card (think 9/11, Route 91 festival, “shooting lasted 9-to-11 minutes”). When the NHC reports that the pressure at landfall was 911 mb, it gets my noggin’ joggin’.

phoenixrising37

Thanks Sadie………

ozzytrumpster

My you are one super suspicious cat. And hyper vigilant too.

Gail Combs

It is not suspicious at all.
We are looking at the beginnings of a Little Ice Age or possibly glaciation.
The Holocene interglacial, or MIS-1, is now 11,500 years old, or half a precessional cycle. Five of the 6 interglacials dating back to the Mid Pleistocene Transition have each lasted just half of a precessional cycle.
The ONLY thing that kicked the earth into a warmer cycle was a Grand Solar MAXIMUM.
MIS 11 spans two precession cycles which is what the Warmists base their thinking on. However Lisiecki and Raymo (Paleooceanography, 2005) produced an exhaustive analysis of 57 globally distributed deep ocean cores reaching back about 5 million years.

However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.”

Since then no one in Quaternary Science has rebutted Lisiecki and Raymo. Not a fact to give one warm fussy feelings. Their research says no warming for ‘another 65 thousand years’ and a good possibility of a return to the Ice Box ‘without human influence’
The summer solstice insulation minimum during MIS-11 at 65N was 489 Watt/m2 and it was 474 Watt/m2 in ~2005 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). You need 15 Watt/m2 to get UP to the insolation minimum in MIS-11.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Schimel, 1996] estimated that the change solar forcing between 1850 (start of the industrial age] and 1990 was only •0.3 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere vs. 1.5 W/m 2 for forcing anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997]. That’s one tenth of what it would take to get up to the MIS-11 value.
A fall 2012 paper “Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?”
gives the 21 June solar insolation @ 65◦ N for termination of several interglacials. Current Solar insolation = 479 W m−2
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
This give you a feel for how close to glaciation we are, you can look at the calculations from NOAA too::
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
Low point of the last ice age – around 463 Wm−2
NOW (modern Warm Period) — 476Wm-2 (13 Wm-2 higher than Ice age low point)
Holocene peak insolation — 522.5 Wm-2 (46.5 Wm-2 higher than present)
Are we headed into glaciation? Who the heck knows the battle is still raging.
But you can see the earth is now in the middle of the range for glacial inception. 😱
Whether the earth sinks into full glaciation or bumps along at the edge really does not matter. The weather is going to be a climatic “madhouse” aka MORE NASTY HURICANES AND HIGH WINDS!
“The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”! — Neuman and Hearty (1996)
Data from the beginning of the Little Ice Age validates the climatic “madhouse” as the earth cools.

andyocoregon

No, No, I want warmer winters. Saves on the heating bills. 🙂

Gail Combs

That is why I moved to mid NC just below the snowline!
Not too hot. Snow once every five years or so, 200 miles inland and on top of a ridge so no flooding and not much hurricane damage. Very few earthquakes and a tornado only once in a while.

ozzytrumpster

Stellar planning

Deplorable Patriot

There’s pros and cons both ways. Cold winters effect the stinging bug population, and kills off the weak ones. Warm winters yield fewer storms and fewer broken bones, and other snow shoveling related incidents.

andyocoregon

If cold winters kill bugs, why are there so many mosquitoes and other biting bugs in Alaska during the summer months?
https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/alaska/bugs-found-in-ak/

Deplorable Patriot

The coast is actually a rain forest. It’s not tundra like the rest of the place. And the article says that when it gets colder, some of those bugs get nastier. They’ve adapted.

duchess01

President Trump attends FEMA briefing on Hurricane Dorian

smiley2

comment image

GA/FL

Warning to Floridians:

duchess01

Dunno when this video was made – however – she said the ‘eye’ of the storm as not arrived just yet…
Powerful Hurricane Dorian impacting Bahamas with intense wind and rain

smiley2

latest Rainfall Forecastcomment image

andyocoregon

Hey now, that’s just disgusting!
😉

smiley2

well hey now Cadimus…is this you…comment image
😀 <3

Deplorable Patriot

Brad Pitt could certainly play him.

smiley2

from NOAA….comment image

smiley2

early rainbands starting ti whip around south Florida…storm’s expanding in size, too.

smiley2

geez Cat 5 typo alert!comment image
=^-^=

GA/FL

Yikes – it’s moving straight west!!!!

smiley2

IKR better start making that turn North PDQ !

smiley2

4 pm Wind Field ….

Sadie Slays

NEW CONE – HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA!comment image

🦋🦋bflyjesusgrl🦋🦋

Is it me or does it look like it shifted a nudge to the west again?? Argh!!! That’s what I hate about it moving sooo slow.

Deplorable Patriot

Yes. My brother’s family cancelled their flight reservations for tomorrow. All bets are off for later, though.

smiley2

NOTICE : MIAMI BRIDGES …Miami, Florida….

smiley2

current radar loopcomment image

smiley2

early bands actually arriving in south Florida from the north now….
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/naples/34102/weather-radar/337577
might have to click on arrow there to activate it…?

GA/FL

Looking into the eye of Dorian….

smiley2

ghastly thing

kea

Have they yelled about ‘global warming yet?’

Gail Combs

As I stated above it is COOLING that gives you unsettled weather.
Little ICE AGE STORMINESS

The enhanced thermal gradient between latitudes about 50° and 60–65°N in this part of the world is thought to have provided a basis for the development of some greater wind storms in these latitudes than have occurred in most of the last 100 years, though there are signs that in about the last decade or two storminess has been increasing again.
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-015-7692-5_34

The onset of the Little Ice Age (around 1350 AD), however, shows an intensified bottom current circulation most probably due to amplifying westerly winds and a decrease in water temperatures in connection with more frequent advances of higher saline Atlantic waters. The Little Ice Age can be divided into 3 phases: a stormy “zonal” onset, a calm “meridional” maximum and a stormy “zonal” end. The stormy phases are characterized by a sedimentation mode similar to that of recent winter conditions while the Little Ice Age Maximum shows conditions comparable to exceptional cold modern winters.”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003101829500114X

Although our data may not be statistically accurate, an increasing level of storm surge elevations over the recent Holocene is observed with a particular maximum during the Little Ice Age.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0025322795000613

Instrumental and documentary records of storminess along the Atlantic coast of western Europe show that storm activity exhibits strong spatial and temporal variability at annual and decadal scales. There is evidence of periods of increased storminess during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (AD 1570–1990), and archival records show that these periods are also associated with sand movement in coastal areas.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618208000190

andyocoregon

CNN blames this hurricane on Climate Change.
They also blame the drought in the Sudan desert on Climate Change.
And all floods are blamed by CNN on Climate Change.
CNN even blames earthquakes on Climate Change.
Climate Change is the new Black.

GA/FL

This year there are many more certified meteorologists standing up against the CC/GW hoax!!!

GA/FL

President Trump is giving everyone courage to stand against the leftist PC, GW, CC, etc. crap!!!!!!!!

kea

Reminds me of the book about the September 8, 1900 hurricane in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas
AKA Isaac’s Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History by Erik Larson

smiley2

well…here we go Florida …for Collier County (Naples)…
severe weather alert issued….
https://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=4aece84881a9468a&hl=en&gl=US&source=wweather
60 mph gusts coming…rain…
the sky is now pitch black ….like a gigantic wicked bruise across the sky from the east, the north and the south.
Dorian sucks.

andyocoregon

A few hours ago I saw on the Weather.com map a large, orange blog right over Naples, Florida. That indicates thunderstorms and lots of rain.

smiley2

we had strong thunderstorms , some lightning, some wind….but it blew thru pretty fast, thankfully….4am now and fairly calm but cloudy.
just waiting and praying for the wretched thing to TURN NORTH.

duchess01

duchess01

LIVE COVERAGE: Tracking Hurricane Dorian

Harry Lime

Everyone in this things path…please stay safe! And come back to the Q-Tree as soon as feasible…after you take care of your property and loved ones…and restore power.

Gail Combs

Besides shelter DRINKING WATER is a major priority.
I already mentioned chlorox for disinfecting water. Disaster Preparedness and Purifying Water | Clorox®
I forgot to mention buying coffee filters and a funnel for removing solids.
We can live for a couple of weeks without food, but we HAVE TO HAVE WATER.

Dora

mollypitcher5

Oh..that tears me up

singingsoul1

God have Mercy.

Sadie Slays

Well, this is horrifying…

Sadie Slays

View post on imgur.com

BAH

mollypitcher5

Another soul asking for prayer

phoenixrising37

President Trump Impromptu Presser From South Lawn – (Video and Transcript)…back at the White House from Camp David, and just prior to a visit to FEMA Headquarters

mollypitcher5

FG&C….. wow… some brave pilots

ForGodandCountry

Honestly, it’s all relative. Here’s what I mean.
Example #1…..Charles Lindbergh’s non-stop transcontental flight to France in May 1927. He was alone, and in a single engine…a piston engine!….airplane.
Now THAT took cajones. Massive, big, Trump-taking-on-the-Deep State balls. Moreso, in fact, than Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landing on the moon.
Here’s why.
Example #2….these hurricane hunter pilots.
First off, these guys (and gals!) in this particular video are flying a plane that has been in service since 1956. Yeah…1956!! You’ve seen one before….lots of times. It’s the C130 Hercules….comment image
This plane is SO tried and true it is not only the longest serving aircraft in the US military….not only the longest serving airplane in the entire world, in fact….in service all over the world by dozens of nations….it is also STILL in production (ie. They are still making brand new ones!). It is also one of the most RUGGED & RELIABLE aircraft ever made, utilizing four (4) massive and highly reliable turboprop engines (ie. turbine engines that spin propellers). [Note: the other hurricane hunting aircraft that flys INTO hurricanes is the P3 Orion, in service since 1962]
Second, these aircrew aren’t the first to fly into a hurricane. They know it can be done safely, and even moreso in this plane.
Are there risks involved? Do the crews need to be highly trained? Hell yes! But those risks are relative.
These crews deserve our respect and thanks, for sure, but not the jaw-dropping awe of a Lingbergh. Even the Apollo spacecraft had been tried and well tested prior to the first landing on the moon….with gov’t money and resources, no less. That doesn’t take away anything from the Apollo guys, at all. But on a comparative basis, heck….Lindbergh was a hero to Armstrong, and both those guys to the hurricane hunters.
It LOOKS scary, and for sure is a turbulent and uncomfortable ride getting into and out of the eye, but so common and “doable” as to be no big thing. Relatively speaking.
Would I go with Lindbergh not knowing if he’d make it? Hell no!
Would I go with the hurricane hunters? In a heartbeat, and twice on Sundays after church.
FWIW

andyocoregon

NOAA also uses the P3-Orion aircraft, also tried and true. Of course they are update from the 1950’s airplanes they used to be.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-hunters-noaa-air-force-planes-2019-8

Sadie Slays

NEW CONE!comment image

🦋🦋bflyjesusgrl🦋🦋

Oh crap! More land, more states!!!

Dora
phoenixrising37

ck out this guy’s twitter profile

Sadie Slays

I strongly recommend the new Tropical Tidbits video, which does an excellent job of explaining the latest hurricane forecasts. Possible Cape Canaveral landfall (8:13 in the video)!

Katie

He’s REALLY good at explaining the complex details in a way that the average person can understand. Sure hope Cape Canaveral doesn’t get hit with the worst of it.

Sadie Slays

Levi has a real talent for giving a straightforward explanation that anyone can understand and without the over-the-top hype. He has a very nice career ahead of him. Strongly recommend his videos.