How long have we chased “peace in the Middle East”? Probably since long before the USA became a country. President Trump refers to it as the most difficult negotiation of all time. Is it possible that we could be close to peace? Could it be?
Peter Goodman is an economic journalist for the New York Times. Smart guy. While most of us will not go beyond the pay-wall to read the article, here is a brief summary. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/business/economy/iran-economy.html
- The Iranian Economy contracted 9.5% last year.
- Oil exports are effectively “zero” (yeah, a few smugglers but Iran is self-reported as effectively zero oil exports).
- Inflation within Iran is 40%.
- Iranian median income is at point for bare subsistence, can’t go any lower (they cannot survive another year of American sanctions)
- 25% unemployment for those under age 30 (highest demo) and college educated unemployment is higher than tradesmen (smart people with time on their hands)
- An Ayatollah who is 80yrs old, with Soleimani dead, and who just had to admit the Iranians mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner…. just weeks after they killed over 1,000 protesters and imprisoned thousands more.
- The Prime Minister in Baghdad, Iraq, who was pro-Iranian, announced his resignation (because the Iraqis protested corruption within the government), effective end of January (which is why the USA is not listening to his requests to withdraw from the country).
Yeah, it’s ugly in Iran. Yet, as we all know, leaders can rally domestic support against a common enemy. For instance, President Trump can rally farmers against China’s aggression and targeting of American farmers during trade negotiations. Likewise, NORMALLY, Iran has been able to rally domestic support against the USA and Israel……… but a funny thing happened on the way to the Baghdad airport.
We’re seeing a change in sentiment…… Some of the Iranians are talking about a period of darkness, the past 40yrs, and moving to the light…….
Emerging from 40yrs of darkness…… Hmmmmm……..
After the death of Soleimani, a three day mourning period was carefully orchestrated. While publicly staged demonstrations, designed for western media, showed an outpouring of loss and support for Soleimani, very quickly, we learned the opposite was true.
Back in November, protests inside Iran were met with brutal force. Local citizens saw the leader of the intensely brutal police/security forces as ………. Soleimani.
“Astonishingly, the death toll has now surpassed 1,500. Over 4,000 have been injured, and more than 12,000 are in prisons and at risk of torture,” said Ambassador Blackwell, referring to the report published by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).https://100percentfedup.com/iranian-protesters-cheer-death-of-iran-general-soleimani-he-should-have-been-taken-out-many-years-ago/
And here, after the death of Soleimani, from the Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/06/dont-believe-iranian-propaganda-about-mourning-soleimani/ Jan 6, 2020 There are many Iranian voices who think Soleimani was a war criminal, but Western journalists rarely reach out to them. Ironically, the Western media is more skeptical of such state-organized …
Soleimani was not universally loved. Ahwazis were forced to mourn Soleimani and mad about it. They set fire to billboards honoring him. https://www.dusc.org/en/article/5151
Then, President Trump issued the famous Farsi tweets from January 12th, supporting the people of Iran in admiration of their “courage”.
As Scott Adams pointed out, if anyone was worried about meddling in the affairs of another country, let alone an election, this is meddling in a serious way. And we all approve. The media hasn’t even checked up to notice or condemn. Plus, President Trump is winning the persuasion argument. When Iranian students go out of their way to avoid stepping on an American flag, it’s a sea change.
It didn’t happen in just one place, either.
You have to wonder about a regime who paints flags of foreign nations on the ground to condition their citizens to trample said flags. Pretty weird.
Yet, the Iranian Mullahs are not quite ready to slip the mask just yet. Remember how President Trump had to wear down the Panda of China? It takes a while. Here, we are seeing what may be the Mullahs last gasps……… in paid-for-support.
If Iran or the USA Dems/media can convince the US military to leave Iraq NOW, then Iran gain control of Iraq, something they could not do during the 8yr war. While all of us want to bring our men/women home from Iraq, this is not the right time. We’re so close.
Strangely, the UK, France and Germany notified Iran of new UN Sanctions for their violation of the JCPOA. Wut? Didn’t the press tell us that all the EU leaders hated and mocked our President? Yet, they’re doing what we want them to do? How did that happen?
And……… look at where the President’s support is coming from on Iran. He has record numbers of approval for Republicans, the Gulf Council is behind him, the Iraqi people are behind him and want Iran OUT, the UN is now behind him, Russia and China have not uttered a word of condemnation about killing Soleimani (which means they like the idea), and now……… the young Iranian people are shifting sentiment.
The only people opposed to Middle East peace are the Mullahs, Obama leftovers, and the Dems/Press Corps. Gosh, if peace broke out, we would have to hospitalize John Kerry and his minions.
We’re closer than we think. Wrap your head around the idea.