“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert.” –J. Robert Oppenheimer
Yes, it’s great that one of the most rancid cunts in US politics is destined to leave office on January 3rd of next year, having been primaried out…by a great big (but not big enough) margin.
But just remember…we might replace the RINO candidates. But that will make no difference in the long run if the party officials, basically the Rhonna McDaniels (or however that’s spelled), don’t get replaced.
State party chairs, vice chairs, secretaries and so on, and the same at county levels, have huge influence on who ultimately gets nominated, and if these party wheelhouses are RINOs, they will work tirelessly to put their own pukey people on the ballot. In fact I’d not be surprised if some of our “MAGA” candidates are in fact, RINO plants, encouraged to run by the RINO party leadership when they realized that Lyn Cheney (and her ilk) were hopelessly compromised as effective candidates. The best way for them to deal with the opposition, of course, is to run it themselves.
Running good candidates is only HALF of the battle!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Gold continues to drop…and the standard story is that it’s because the dollar looks attractive to the big financial weenies because the interest rate is climbing. And it’s trending up against the euro. Personally I think both are circling the drain, so something else is in play…conspiracy theories about big buyers forcing the price down are certainly not out of order.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
Yes, it’s great that one of the most rancid cunts in US politics is destined to leave office on January 3rd of next year, having been primaried out…by a great big (but not big enough) margin.
But just remember…we might replace the RINO candidates. But that will make no difference in the long run if the party officials, basically the Rhonna McDaniels (or however that’s spelled), don’t get replaced.
State party chairs, vice chairs, secretaries and so on, and the same at county levels, have huge influence on who ultimately gets nominated, and if these party wheelhouses are RINOs, they will work tirelessly to put their own pukey people on the ballot. In fact I’d not be surprised if some of our “MAGA” candidates are in fact, RINO plants, encouraged to run by the RINO party leadership when they realized that Lyn Cheney (and her ilk) were hopelessly compromised as effective candidates. The best way for them to deal with the opposition, of course, is to run it themselves.
Running good candidates is only HALF of the battle!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
There’s no question–the traditional precious metals (gold and silver) are getting hammered. The PGMs aren’t getting hit as badly; in fact rhodium is up!
JWST Update (Last One for a While?)
The James Webb Space Telescope has been commissioned. It has returned its first operational pictures. I posted them on Tuesday.
The science mission now begins. This will run, hopefully, for years. They plan on getting ten years out of the telescope. But NASA either fails spectacularly coming out of the gate, or ends up running missions for far longer than expected (the Voyager probes are closing in on fifty years). Since the first didn’t happen…well, we can look forward to all sorts of interesting stuff!
What do we expect? Well, we hope to look further back in time, to the formation of the very first stars–those are expected to be different from anything around today because they formed from almost pure hydrogen and helium; no recycled “burned” fusion products as every star today is made from. The idea is these will probably have been gigantic stars and maybe we’ll learn something about those supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies.
I’m going to go way out in front of my skis here and ask if perhaps those supermassive black holes are remnants of first stars, and the galaxies formed around them rather than them forming after the galaxies did. (Hopefully my faceplant will be entertaining. Any real astrophysicist reading this is probably rolling on the floor laughing at some elementary idiocy in what I just said.)
Another thing JWST hopes to do is look at exoplanets. We know of hundreds of them indirectly; now we finally have a tool that might be able to see something directly.
Of course, it stands ready to investigate the next unscheduled “kaboom.” If there’s a supernova nearby you can bet JWST will be on it. SN 1987A (which wasn’t exactly nearby but you could see it with the naked eye so it wasn’t that far away either) happened before Hubble. Generally about 10 or 20 percent of the time on the telescope is not allocated ahead of time just in case something crops up. With Hubble the scientist who administered it got to assign that time to whatever he wanted (with the understanding that if something big happens unexpectedly, he’ll drop what he’s doing and use his time on that). Of course the truly unexpected is…well, unexpected, so we can’t know what will come of it.
But the larger point is, we actually do not know what JWST will discover; we have a list of what it will investigate. If we did know what it would discover, we wouldn’t need it! We have questions we can use JWST on, but no answers. When we have answers…they will lead to questions we couldn’t even think to ask today. That’s real science. (Quite unlike the crap that goes on in medical research.)
Meanwhile, I am going to have to find something else to write about, at least until some results come in. A scientist granted time on JWST generally has some set period of time where s/he has exclusive access to the data, so they can write their paper and publish. Then it’s opened up to everyone.
So I don’t expect to see news reports about what “JWST has found” for at least a little while.
You Read It Here First
Slate (okay, I’ll pause while you vomit…OK, better now?) has an article about false-color images from JWST:
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
All over the map here. Gold up, silver is exactly where it was (though I am sure it moved around a bit over the week), all of the PGMs down. That says to me the industrial users are demanding less, and gold is serving as a safe haven.
But that interpretation is worth exactly what you just paid for it.
JWST Update
JWST instrument commissioning proceeds apace.
This morning, I saw they had two of the seventeen instrument modes checked off. It’s now 3PM mountain time…and they have four!
That tells me they’re working a bunch of them (maybe even all of them) at the same time.
The JWST blog is busy, too. As some here noted, they’ve already dealt with a micrometeor strike. They expected these and designed with that in mind. (Though if a meteor isn’t so “micro-” there could be problems. However, the bigger they are the less likely they are.)
Also they’ve posted about the near infrared imager and slitless spectrometer (NIRISS), one of the four instruments on JWST (there’s a fifth, but it’s used to keep track of the JWST itself). They can do spectroscopy on one object, or everything in the field of view at once, interfermetry (getting increased resolution at the cost of some light), and just plain old imaging to back up and/or supplement NIRCam.
If I were to try to overstate how important spectroscopy is to astronomy, I’d fail. It’s thanks to spectroscopy that we can tell radial velocity (how fast a star is moving towards or away from us), how fast something is rotating, what it is made of, and (with a lot of sophisticated processing) the mass and period of many exoplanets and even what the atmosphere of an exoplanet might contain (provided in the latter case we are in the exoplanet’s orbital plane), all without leaving the comfort of our home planetary system (and let’s face it, we still haven’t much choice there). The overwhelming majority of what we know about “out there” is thanks to spectroscopy. And it was key in discovering at least a dozen chemical elements, including one that was discovered in the sun before it was discovered here (I’ve told that story–hint/reminder, it’s the chemical element named after the sun).
You may have wondered how they’re going to decide who gets to use JWST. After all there are more astronomers than there are James Webb Space Telescopes. And, it turns out, it’s a bureaucratic process.
I know that some of the available (24/7 minus takedowns for maintenance, usually adjusting mirror secoment alignments) time is held in reserve, at the discretion of the manager of the JWST. That’s quite a privilege, but other than his personal research, he’ll be expected to use it to study things that go kaboom or comets, especially comets about to hit things. In other words, if a supernova were to go off near by (a totally unanticipatable event), it gets priority over the guy who wants an image of NGC-1234…and that guy would probably even agree with the decision; we haven’t had a really gonzo supernova since before Galileo’s telescope. (The fact that the one back in 1987 was visible even though it was a hundred thousand light years away tells you something about how bright a star like Betelgeuse would be if it went kaboom! since Betelgeuse is a couple of hundred times closer. Yes, it would be visible in daylight.)
When we conservatives decline to volunteer as a dish in the progressive buffet, the leftists have no choice but to feed upon each other. We will see more of it as conservatives wake up and smell the kombucha – leftists only win when they can bully and intimidate, and if we choose not to let them do that to us, then it’s not as if they will give up their go-to move. No, they will turn on each other, and we will gobble up the Orville Redenbacher as they fight to the death for our amusement.
And we are amused.
Donald Trump was the first guy to push back, really push back, but it was not simply his pugnacious nature and cunning ability with mean tweets that made him important. It was his moral position. At some level, for some reason, so many establishment Republicans had approached these bad faith actors as legitimate critics who were at best misguided and who might actually have a germ of a point within their critiques. Trump, however – having been among them for decades and understanding exactly who they are – read them correctly. He considered them garbage.
It was not so much that Trump fought back, it was that he made it clear that the leftists are scum. And because he did not credit them with any moral stature, their slings and arrows bounced off his armor. Of course, Ron DeSantis has taken the same tack with them, refusing to credit them with any kind of merit. And that deprives them of their most powerful weapon – their victims’ complicity.
The thing about words is that they can only hurt you if you let them. At one point, “racist” and “sexist” and all the other lies might have stung. Now, we consider them a punchline and an outright slander. We laugh at them.
Kurt Schlichter on TownHall
This is precisely what Ayn Rand called “the sanction of the victim.” It comes about when, deep down, you cede moral authority to your oppressors. Rand would, in particular, highlight the effects of an altruistic world view in this connection, i.e., where your worth is measured by how much self sacrifice you are willing to do. If you can be guilt-tripped for not being willing to give up something you value, to help out a bum on the street, they’ve got you.
This sort of thing is, I believe, why many RINOs cave regularly. They believe that the Left has a bunch of impractical ideals, and they think of themselves as practical people who have to rein those impractical people in. But the problem is, they think of the left’s ideals as ideals that can’t be achieved practically–which means they say to themselves, “Well it’s nice in theory.” So they can be pressured to help try. After all, it would be nice if real communism could work, so why not get as close to it as is practical?
But in doing this they cede the moral high ground to the Left. Which is why RINOs are inveterate invertebrates.
Rand, of course, thought altruism (which she considered sacrificing something of greater value for something of lesser value, about which more below) was a crock, so she was immune to that.
But even those immune to altruistic appeals might not be immune to accusations of “sexism” or “racism” and modern Leftism isn’t so much about Marxism of the “workers own the means of production” as it is about race and sex inequality “built in” to the culture. (Though the former is supposed to be a means to correct the latter…or maybe the latter is the excuse to implement the former…ah, well, who cares which one it is?) So they pull guilt trips that can only work if you cede them the high ground. If you do that, you will feel you deserve what they do to you.
That’s a major philosophical thread underlying the entire novel Atlas Shrugged.
(By the way in her non-fiction writing Ayn Rand was explicit that she was not talking about “sacrificing” to put your kids through college or things like that–you are trading a lesser value (that fancy car you couldn’t buy) for something of greater value (your children’s futures. She would not consider that an actual sacrifice but rather a high price paid for something of great value. A sacrifice is giving up something more valuable to you, in exchange for something less valuable. With that in mind, Ayn Rand opposed sacrifices in life, often gotten from people through guilt trips.)
And now, thanks in part to the Left going over the top with accusations of “racism” and in part to Trump showing them to be paper tigers, the Left is losing their power…and they’re losing their shit over that.
Quarters
The subject of the new quarters came up a couple of days ago, and I thought I’d bring in a historical perspective.
It’s hard to imagine today, but in the early days quarters weren’t that popular a denomination. Since, back then, the mint made coins to order by anyone who brought silver or gold in, that meant if people didn’t specifically ask for it, they didn’t make it. And most people bringing in a bunch of silver would want it done as dollars or half dollars.
But, nevertheless they did make a few thousand of them in 1796.
Note there’s no denomination on the coin. You were expected to know what it was by its size. And the other silver coins had the same design themes on them.
They made a few more quarters in the 1800s (i.e., 180x, not the 19th century) with a different eagle (and now, the denomination is given as 25 C though it looks like an afterthought):
And then in 1807 or so they changed designs completely.
Collectors refer to the prior designs as “Draped Bust/Small Eagle” and “Draped Bust/Large Eagle” and this design is the “Capped Bust” because Liberty is wearing a cap. This ran until mid 1838, though the recently-founded New Orleans mint adopted it a couple years later. Again, all silver denominations basically used the same theme, the coins looked like each other except for size and the written denomination (half dimes, dimes, quarters, and halves–there were no capped bust dollars at all). [Yes, half dimes…silver coins half the size of a dime. The nickel we know and love didn’t exist until 1866.]
Again, there’d be multi-year gaps where no one ordered quarters from the mint.
Next was the “Liberty Seated” series which ran until 1891, i.e., it lasted longer than the mint had been in existence when it was adopted. Again, all of the silver coins basically looked the same. We had silver dollars again. But the half-dime and dime were a little different, instead of an eagle they had a wreath on the reverse. So we finally started to see a breaking up of the monolithic one-design-for-all-denominations rule.
There was one major change to this in 1866 for the quarter, half dollar and dollar, because “In God We Trust” was added, on a ribbon over the eagle’s head and wings.
A multimillionaire might decide it would be fun to get one of each date and mintmark, in uncirculated condition…that’s the typical collecting type, albeit with a budget the typical collector doesn’t have (most collectors don’t even delve into Liberty Seated and earlier coinage at all; if you collect by type–one of each design type rather than one of each year and mint mark–you have a considerable advantage; you need six or eight coins instead of over a hundred).
That multimillionaire will never succeed if he undertakes that quest. Many dates, especially from the San Francisco mint, are unknown in uncirculated condition; i.e., absent someone opening a box in an old attic somewhere and making a discovery, there aren’t any. Period. Again, quarters were not that popular, and the mint didn’t make many. (And the Civil War was not good for specie coinage on top of that.)
The mint got bored with the Liberty Seated coinage and decided to replace it starting in 1892. We were now down to four silver denominations, the dime, quarter, and half dollar, plus two distinct types of silver dollars. The silver dollars had their own designs, now, but the dime, quarter and half dollar still had liberty seated on the obverse and an eagle (or wreath) on the reverse. Anyhow, the replacement quarter was…
And collectors are almost unanimous in finding this design to be incredibly blah. (What’s with Liberty’s neck?) This design had one big advantage though, and that is that it struck up well, with all the detail, and as it wore down, it was still readily recognizable. That was the criteria Charles Barber was working from, and he succeeded.
Why am I showing you all of this? Because people were talking about the artistry and symbolism of the new quarters. So the design has been my focus so far.
In the 1900s…as in 190x, not 19xx..none other than President Theodore Roosevelt decided our coins were artistically atrocious. Not just silver but also the coppers, nickels, and gold pieces. (Probably the only then-current design liked a lot today is the Indian head cent.) So he embarked on a crusade to change the designs. There was, at the time, a law against changing the designs more than once every twenty five years, but the then-current gold designs had been around since 1839 or 1849 depending on the denomination, so those could be done right now. Roosevelt brought well-known sculptors famous for their work into the project, and this was in the days before modern “art.” (You can look those up: Indian head quarter eagle, half eagle, eagle, and St. Gaudens double eagle, I want to focus on quarters).
But the effort to change our coinage actually did outlive Teddy Roosevelt. In 1916, under Woodrow Never-to-be-Sufficiently-Damned Wilson, the silver was addressed (and again, there was no dollar being produced at all). And this time the designs were completely different for each denomination.
So I present you the “Standing Liberty Quarter.”
Only a few were made at the tail end of 1916 and command a huge premium today, but more were made in 1917 and then there was a design change.
The shield looks different, the eagle is higher up, the stars on the reverse are rearranged…and yeah, Liberty is now overdressed.
[The modern “old wives’ tale” is that there was a huge hue and cry over the bare breast and that’s why they changed the design, but in fact little evidence of such can be found in contemporary newspapers. And John Ashcroft wasn’t even alive then.]
These coins are much, much more artistic than the Barber series, but the mint hated them. The design was nearly impossible to strike up. Oftentimes detail in Liberty’s head was just not there, and so today, if you’re shopping for one of these, an “FH” or “Full Head” designation can bring a premium. But even on “Full Head” coins, many of the rivets on the shield (and the US shield on the shield) can be soft or nonexistent.
It was difficult to mint these well in the sorts of quantities the mint was now being called upon to produce. (The “Mercury” dime and walking liberty half dollar also introduced in 1916 had similar issues…also worth looking up.)
Charles Barber was stung that his design had been dropped after 24 years (with a little creative interpretation of the exact text of the 25 year rule), and considered these designs failures–and by his criteria, as a man charged with producing designs that would strike up and wear well, he was actually right.
Washington’s 200th birthday was fast approaching, and Congress passed a bill to put Washington on the quarter in 1932. The last standing liberty quarter was made in 1930 (none dated 1931).
So now, who gets to sculpt George Washington?
The Commission on Fine Arts had hired Laura Gardin Fraser to sculpt a commemorative medal, and they suggested the same bust be used on the quarter. But instead Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon chose the James Flanagan portrayal, which in turn was based on a sculpted bust by Jean-Antoine Houdon made in 1786–i.e., a sculpture made using Washington himself as a model.
A plaster copy of Houdon’s bust of Washington
So the Flanagan portrayal should be very, very close to an actual image of Washington. (It can be hard to nail down a good image of someone who lived before photography.) Anyhow, here it is:
This of course is what we’re used to. But please note, there is actual detail in Washington’s hair. By the 1960s and 1970s the master hub from which the dies are made had worn smooth from repeated use and Washington’s hair began to look like a skullcap.
A touched up version of this began to be used sometime in the 1990s, but they overdid it and it looked like Washington’s hair was made of spaghetti.
Honestly, from 1994 they couldn’t find a coin that wasn’t heavily dinged up around George’s mouth?
It only got worse in 1999. The image was shrunk slightly to make room for legends brought from the reverse for the state quarters series.
And the spaghetti looks even worse. For that matter so do the dings on the coin.
And the spaghetti hair looks even worse. (BTW, here he faces away from “In God We Trust.” This is nothing new; it has been like that since 1999.)
Still, it looks very much like before. Flanagan might not have liked what was done to his portrait, but at least it was recognizable as an attempt at his portrait.
The state quarters series, and the subsequent national seashore series ended, finally in 2021, early in the year, and the mint reverted to the 1990s full-size, spaghetti hair portrait, for just that one year (with IGWT on the left again below Washington’s chin).
On the reverse is this image of Washington’s crossing of the Delaware. (I couldn’t find a decent sharp image of the obverse of this coin; the focus was on the new reverse.)
But this was just a gap filler. We’re on to a new program for quarters, one recognizing women…and OBTW it’s quota time. One White, one “Native American,” one Black, one Asian, one Hispanic. (And we get to do this for three more years after this one. Oh joy. Oh rupture.)
(The feminazis must be downright orgasmic over the Amerind honoree, Wilma Mankiller.)
And it being women…well, it has been alleged that Mellon made his decision for the Flanagan portrait over the Fraser portrait on purely sexist grounds, and so, where better than on quarters designed to honor women should one rectify such an injustice? So Fraser’s portrait, used once on a $5 gold commemorative in 1999 (shown below), got brought back.
Well, Mellon’s choice might have been due to sexism, or it might have been that he thought this was butt ugly by comparison. Judging from the commentary here earlier this week, I’ll go with butt ugly.
On the other hand, a “Fine Arts Commission” did recommend this over the Flanagan design. So I’ll allow that perhaps sincere people could differ over which one is better.
Perhaps.
Now I’m going to come to Fraser’s defense, a bit. She and her husband, James Earle Fraser, were “real” sculptors too, just as St. Gaudens, Bela Lyon Pratt, Adolph Weinman, Victor D. Brenner, and Hermon Atkins MacNeil were (these people had all done coin designs in the early 20th century). In fact James Fraser did the Indian Head (or “Buffalo”) nickel. Laura did one of the two sides of the Oregon Trail Memorial half dollar (struck intermittently between 1926 and 1939):
She and her husband both liked to use American Indian subjects in their sculpture, and I realized earlier this week that might be why Washington looks very “Indian” in her portrayal.
(By the way the other side of that coin was done by James:)
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Busy Week
Between 2000 Mules and the SCOTUS leak, things have been hectic out there. The latter item is “real” to the establishment (i.e., the Left), and they’re melting down. 2000 Mules, on the other hand, isn’t “real” to them.
I’m sure you’ve noticed now that no revelation gets any sort of traction in Washington DC, traction that causes someone in authority to actually act, until it gets into the Yellow Stream Media. (And these days, only information they want to act on, gets there.) 2000 Mules will probably never do so; and if not, it won’t show up on the DC radar and nothing will come of it. The claim that the election was stolen will continue to be dismissed by anyone who has any power to do something about it.
This is not the same as them not knowing about the election being stolen. They do know. It’s just that while the YSM isn’t hollering and screaming about it, they can ignore it. And they do. The YSM still continues to act as agenda billboard, and the Left controls the YSM. So this week we deal with abortion, not the stolen election. Last week it was Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Precious metals continue their downward slide. This is partially due to manipulation, but the fact of the matter is that investors will put their money where it will make a return. With interest rates going up, they actually like dollars, because dollars earn more interest. Gold, to them, is a way to not lose money most of the time.
JWST Update
JWST instrument commissioning proceeds apace.
NASA made a blog post explaining one of the more practical aspects of the James Web Space Telescope. Where can it point?
It must perpetually present the heat shield towards the sun, or it’s toast. Literally. Well, “toast” is a relative term; getting up to room temperature would be bad for the optics and sensors.
James Web Space Telescope. Mirror in gold, sunshield in gray “below” it.
So it seems like JWST can only look at half of the sky, basically the same half someone on Earth would see at midnight, with the sun on the other side of the big heat shield we call Planet Earth. And it doesn’t rotate like we do here, which lets us see almost all of the sky between just-after-sunset and just-before-sunrise, with the thin band in between only up when the sun is up and thus washed out. So even though we can see most of the sky on any given night, JWST can only see half of the sky (albeit 24/7, there being no daytime for it), right? [Note: I am ignoring the effect–on the Earth observer–of latitude, which permanently hides part of the sky from him or her, but on the other hand allows other parts of the sky to be seen any time at night.]
Yes, and no. JWST in orbit about the sun, once a year (since it sits at Earth/Sun L2), so six months from now, it can see the other half of the sky, just like our midnight astronomer here on Earth.
But it’s a bit more restricted than that. The JWST mirror cannot be moved. It’s not on any kind of a swivel. It cannot swivel either left-right or up-down in the picture above.
To aim the telescope, the entire spacecraft has to be rotated, with gyros. In the picture above it can be rotated 360 degrees about a “vertical” axis, keeping the sunshade where it is but turning it (and the antenna) like a record on a record player. (This is the yaw direction of rotation.)
It can also tip, just a bit, up and down, “nodding” basically, this is called the pitch direction. It has about a 50 degree travel in the pitch direction, as shown in the following two diagrams.
When JWST’s sun shield is face on to the sun, that shield is getting the maximum amount of solar radiation, and thus this is called the “hot” attitude. When the telescope is pointed halfway towards being pointed directly away from the sun, the sun shield is presented to the sun at a 45 degree angle and thus collects 70.7% percent as much energy as in the “hot” attitude (i.e., the sine of 135 degrees). We don’t dare tip the spacecraft any more than that lest the actual telescope (and sensors) be exposed directly to the sun (and thereby become “toast”).
The practical effect is that the patch of sky directly opposite of the sun cannot be looked at by JWST; that part lies outside the telescope’s “field of regard.” However if you actually want to look at something there, you can wait three months and get it when that patch of sky is at a 90 degree angle to the sun because JWST has moved 90 degrees around the sun.
Over the course of one year, JWST has access to the entire sky.
As to the current commissioning activity, at least part of it is “astrometric calibration.” In other words, if we tell the telescope to point at such-and-such pitch and yaw, what does each sensor actually see? There might be a tiny bit of error from what we would expect, no instrument is exact straight from the fabrication. We’ll be able to specify an exact right ascension and declination (the analogues to longitude and latitude in the sky) and know exactly how to rotate the spacecraft to look at that point.
There’s a lot more to it than that, but I’m going to let NASA explain it:
Do you remember the moon rocket that was undergoing a “wet dress rehearsal”?
Well, it has gone through several of them, and the test was a success. They found problems they now know they need to correct.
Yes, I called it a success, even though the spacecraft would have likely malfunctioned if it had launched. Because that’s the purpose of testing: to find such problems. We found them. A test isn’t a failure just because it found something wrong; it’s a failure if it fails to find problems that do exist.
If you remember the attention given to something called Biosphere 2 about 25 years ago, that’s another example. Biosphere 2 was an attempt to build a large, perfectly sealed greenhouse and see if people could live in it indefinitely, growing their own food and being sustained as part of a balanced system (plants to absorb the CO2 they exhaled and generate O2 for them to breathe).
The idea is if we are ever to start living in space or on other planets, we need to know how to do this, at least long enough to “terraform” other planets (make them more earthlike and establish an earthlike biosphere on them so we can live there as if we were native to the place). A long manned space mission probably won’t be able to bring several years’ worth of food along; we’ll have to grow it…inside a tin can that had better not leak. The only resource “out there” is sunlight (and that’s the one thing that could get in and out of Biosphere 2 once the doors were sealed).
It was a test of our ability to make a closed system.
And the test “failed.” The concrete in the structure continued to absorb oxygen even after we thought it was done curing.
But it wasn’t a failure; we learned a lot from it. Sure on one level our first attempt at building a closed system “failed” because it couldn’t sustain people for two years, but no one actually expected it to work perfectly; the point of the exercise was to discover what we don’t know. And for that, it worked beautifully.
Biosphere 2 is still standing; you can take tours of it. It’s being used for botanical research because it’s the most isolated environment on earth (even with people traipsing about on tours).
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Mozart
Sedate. The adagio (2nd movement) from his clarinet concerto.
And a bit…less sedate. Last movement of his Symphony #41 which is the last one he wrote.
(Don’t be fooled by the fact that there’s a Symphony #42, or 43, or…well up to #55 at least…as I explained last time the numbering isn’t really chronological. To the best of my knowledge he’s got at least 51 symphonies under his belt (though some are disputed), so if we were ever to renumber them, this one would be #51. But we never will renumber them; that would cause confusion for centuries.)
By the way, that sucker ends in a five part fugue. Not easy to write!
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Everything down except for rhodium. Gold seems relatively solidly in the lower half of the 1900s, with the recent spike being history. Platinum, meanwhile, is going back on sale.
JWST Update
Apparently the James Webb Space Telescope imaging team has done such a good job with the initial mirror alignment that most of the instruments are properly focused.
The one exception to this is the MIRI (Mid InfraRed Instrument). Actually, it might be too. But this is the instrument that rounds out the bottom end of the JWST “visible spectrum” (quite a bit lower frequency than yours and mine, even with night vision goggles). In order to operate properly it needs to be cooled by liquid helium (!) which means a temperature of 4 K, or about 7 degrees Fahrenheit above absolute zero, or roughly -453F. There’s a special cryogenic cooling system for this instrument.
(On the temperature of warmth, relative to Hitlary Klinton’s personality, we’re talking about 14 degrees higher. And yes, I know that puts her at -10K which should be physically impossible…)
The other instruments are happy with a relatively balmy 33-44K (-400F to -387F) or so.
So MIRI is slowly being cooled. They didn’t bother doing anything with it before, so (ironically) it’s the toastiest-warmest instrument right now at 53K (-364F), but it is dropping fairly rapidly.
Where Is Webb? NASA/Webb If you click on the temperature plots button you can see what’s going on. And you can read the official statement from NASA here if I wasn’t clear enough:
(Of course sometimes I can write an entire post unpacking their release for non-geeks. But this one seems OK.)
Other Space News
We’ve got a double feature this week. Triple, if you count the JWST news.
First off, the Hubble Space Telescope ain’t dead yet! (Nor should it be so long as we have the will and resources to keep it going…it and JWST will complement each other nicely.) It has spotted a star–a big one, obviously–12.9 billion light years away. It has been named Earendel (the star, not the telescope), an obvious Tolkien reference. Well, it sounds like a name he’d make up; apparently you have to be nerdy enough to have read the Silmarillion to “get” it. The character became a star (literally).
Earendel…brought to us by gravitational lensing.
So what’s the big deal? Well, if the star is that far away…then that light has been travelling for 12.9 billion years just to get to us. Which means the star itself was around only about 800 million years after the Big Bang. (It’s long, long, gone now–it probably blew up over 12.8 billion years ago. Big stars live hard and die young, burning fuel almost as profligately as Al Bore flying to a Global Warming summit.)
One of the goals of the JWST is to be able to see the very first stars that formed; we think those will generally be big honkin’ things that formed about the same time galaxies began to form. And since they will not contain anything other than the original hydrogen and helium that formed when the universe was a few minutes old. Among other things, for reasons I’m quite unclear on, stars made from pure “primordial” hydrogen and helium can likely be much larger than stars today can be. (We won’t know for sure until we can see them.)
Earendel is not one of these first stars, but it probably only had a couple of generations of predecessors. It’s certainly closer than we’ve come before. To do any better, we’ll need the (wait for it…) James Webb Space Telescope.
Meanwhile, if I understand correctly, the only reason we saw this star at all is it happens to lie in a place that’s gravitationally lensed; in other words, the curvature of space between us and Earendel is acting like a magnifying glass.
The other bit of space news is more on the “practical” side.
This is the most powerful rocket ever built. Even beating out the Saturn V which put Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and ten others on the moon over fifty years ago.
This rocket will be capable of putting 27 metric tons (spelled “tonnes”) of stuff in “Trans Lunar Injection” (in other words, to send 27 tonnes to the moon). Future versions will send over 46 metric tons Moonward. (The Saturn V did 43.5 tonnes at its best.)
This rocket will develop 8,800,000 lbf of thrust (39,000 kN) of thrust (versus Saturn V 7,891,000 lbf (35,100 kN)). The later versions will develop 9.2 million lbf of thrust. (lbf = “pounds force”, in other words a pound regarded as a unit of force, not a unit of mass…the English system is a hot mess when it comes to weight, force, and mass.)
The center stack (tan/brown) consists of liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen stages, similar to the shuttle. In fact it’s almost as if they simply stuck shuttle engines on the bottom of a shuttle external tank. (It’s more complicated than that, though.) The two boosters (HA!!! I can use that word for once without it being about f***ing slab jabs) are like the solid rocket boosters from the shuttle, only longer (an additional segment added); and they won’t be recovered after use.
Yes. It’s a moon rocket. An actual moon rocket, and is sitting on the launch pad. It’s either being fueled or IS fueled, today, and there’s a countdown in progress for a launch.
But that launch will be cancelled mere seconds before ignition.
This is a “wet dress rehearsal,” and it’s “wet” because that’s NASA/space travel slang for “with full fuel tanks.” Yes, they’re going to fuel it up, not launch it, drain the fuel, then take it back to the tall building where they assemble rockets (creatively named the Vehicle Assembly Building) and look it over to see if there are any problems. Because if there are problems caused by just filling the gas tank, you’d better address them before you launch the sucker for real!
Sometime in the future, there will be a real launch of an unmanned capsule. (Best guess, June.) Eventually…sometime around 2026…we go back to the moon. I’m going to repeat that, because the wokester Left is going to hang so much PC/CRT baggage on it that we risk losing sight of what’s important here while we vomit our lunches:
WE GO BACK TO THE MOON.
T2 Temperature
We talked about heat, as a form of energy last time around. Our discussion relied on the concept of temperature, which we’re all pretty comfortable with. It is, after all, part-and-parcel of any discussion of the weather, which nearly everyone likes to talk about and even plan their lives around.
But temperature is not heat. If it were, two objects at the same temperature would contain the same amount of heat.
“Wait, Steve,” you might say, “Of course a big boulder will contain more heat than a pebble, even at the same temperature, because it’s bigger!”
OK, not a bad thought. But as it turns out, two different substances, of the same mass, at the same temperature, will still contain different amounts of heat. In fact we can even hang a number on every substance, defining how much heat must be added to it to raise the temperature one degree (once we correct for the mass of the thing); that’s the specific heat. Water’s is unusually high, much higher than iron’s. (How we figured that out was largely covered last time.)
A very mundane observation comes into play here: If you put a hot object next to a cold one, or better yet, dunk one into a pool of the other, like hot iron into cold water, the iron cools off, and the water heats up. The process continues until everything is the same temperature. Then we’ve reached a state called “thermodynamic equilibrium” where heat is no longer flowing from the iron to the water. So temperature has to do with thermodynamic equilibrium.
Another clue came when chemists/physicists (pick either one: depending on where you draw the line between the two) investigated the behavior of gases in the 1600s through the early 1800s.
For instance, they found out that you could compress a gas, say to half its original volume, and it would both heat up and increase in pressure. You could then wait for the heat to dissipate (i.e., for thermodynamic equilibrium) and note the pressure was exactly twice as high as it was before the compression. (This is Boyle’s Law, from 1662.)
If you kept the gas at a constant pressure, heating it up would make it expand, cooling it would make it contract (this is Charles’s Law, from the 1780s).
And from 1800-1802, Gay-Lussac’s Law: Heating the gas while holding the volume constant would also increase the pressure. Cooling it would decrease the pressure.
But in order to go further with this, we need to be able to measure temperature. Here in the United States, we still use the Fahrenheit scale. It’s named after Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit (1686-1736), who developed a 100 degree scale, with 0 being the temperature of a particular kind of freezing brine, and 100 being tied to human body temperature. He did note that pure water froze at 32 on his scale. Of course hot water would bust the upper bound of this; by the 20th century the scale had been defined by setting the temperature of boiling water 180 degrees above freezing point, or 212 °F. (I must add here that this is the boiling point at sea level; it turns out to depend on air pressure.)
Of course when the metric system came along and defined a scale called centigrade (since renamed to Celsius after Swedish astronomer Anders Celsius (1701-1744) who had had a similar idea in 1742), the tie to water became even stronger with 0 set to the temperature of ice water, and 100 set to the boiling point. (That hundredth of the difference is where the name “centigrade” came from, from Latin for “hundred steps.”) You can measure temperature on this scale, or talk about the difference between two different temperatures.
Now that last sentence is kind of odd; I seem to be pointing out the obvious there.
But there is a difference between Celsius being used to measure temperature, and (say) the meter used to measure length. For length, no matter what you do, you’re not going to find an object of negative length. But you can, apparently, measure the temperature of something and come up with a negative number. And because the Fahrenheit and Celsius scales have different starting points, an object can have a positive temperature in Fahrenheit and a negative one in Celsius.
Not at all like length, or mass, where it’s pretty easy to agree on where to set zero and the only thing you have to worry about is the size of the unit. Two different systems (English and Metric) both agree on what zero length means; it’s just the size of a foot versus a meter that’s at issue. You can compare the size of a Fahrenheit degree with a Celsius degree (and find that it’s 5/9ths the size of the other), but that’s not all you need.
Imagine measuring the distance from Washington D.C. to New York City, with a zero point in Baltimore. You’d have to travel a few dozen miles from DC to even get up to zero distance. Now that’s weird, even post general relativity. And honestly, it’d be a pain to plan trips, make maps or do anything like that if we had to deal with such a mess…especially if, when doing it in metric, the zero point was in Philadelphia instead!
But that’s the way the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales work. The zero point isn’t at anything that might be considered a real zero, because you can get below that point. (That’s why you have to multiply by 5/9ths and then subtract 32…or was it subtracting 32 then multiplying by 5/9ths…or adding and multiplying by 9/5ths…or whatevertheheck. [OK, I’m clowning here. To get from Fahrenheit to Celsius, you subtract 32…to get a number that is zero when water freezes; it’s the number of Fahrenheit degrees above freezing. Now your number has the same starting point as Celsius, and you can multiply by 5/9ths to account for Celsius having “bigger” degrees. Invert the process to go the other way: multiply °C by 9/5ths, then add 32.])
So now lets return to our gas laws. Gay-Lussac’s law says heating a gas increases its pressure (keeping the volume constant). And Charles’s law says heating a gas makes it expand (keeping the pressure constant). In both cases, how much?
It’s not a neat proportion like Boyle’s law, where you can halve the volume and double the pressure (holding temperature constant). Heating a gas from 20 to 40 °F doesn’t double its volume (if pressure is constant), or its pressure (if volume is constant). And it doesn’t work going from 20-40 °C either (in fact it works a bit worse).
Aaah, but remember, temperature measurement is goofy! Zero seems to be picked at some unnatural point. Boyle’s law works as a proportion because neither quantity is temperature. The other two don’t work as a proportion.
Actually, as it happens, if you measure temperature relative to -273.15 °C or -459.67 °F, instead of the scales’ zero points, it does work. Doubling the temperature measured from this point does indeed double the volume (or the pressure).
But working in reverse, if you were to cool your gas to -273.15 °C, then you’re at zero on the adjusted scale, and the volume of your gas should be zero. And so should its pressure.
It can’t shrink any more than that, and it can’t exert less pressure than that. So have we found an absolute lowest temperature?
It turns out we have. And so the modern metric unit…the real one, not the one people outside of the US see in their weather reports, which is still Celsius, is the kelvin, named after William Thomson (1824-1907). [Not a typo. Yes, “kelvin” and “Thomson” are distinctly different words, but he was named first Baron Kelvin by Queen Victoria in 1892 and used that name henceforth. In fact, he was the first scientist to be elevated to the House of Lords.]
Kelvin has the same degree size as Celsius. And it starts at absolute zero. So we don’t even bother with the word “degrees.” We don’t say “50 degrees kelvin” (unless by mistake), we just say “50 kelvins” or “50K.” And we skip the cute little circle: °. Water melts at 273.15 K, and boils a hundred kelvins higher, 373.15 K. And physicists think in kelvins. And so, especially, do astrophysicists, who will always quote the temperature of an astronomical body in kelvins. (If it’s something hot, they’ll just double that to give the science “journalists” Fahrenheit…it’s fairly close, and let’s face it, you and I don’t really know what 10,000F means other than “damned hot.”)
There is a similar scale using the Fahrenheit degree. It’s called the Rankine scale, symbolized with °R or °Ra. (And we’re back to the little circle.) It was proposed by Macquorne Rankin, using similar logic with the kelvin scale. But this is something you can safely forget about, as even English and American scientists and engineers stick with kelvins and no one but a scientist or an engineer cares about absolute zero.
As for the gases? Well, no they don’t shrink to zero size at 0K. Because long before then they liquefy or solidify, because the molecules of which they are made have a size greater than zero. Helium, it turns out, remains a gas all the way down to a bit over 4K. So the gas laws are an idealization, they work pretty well when the gases aren’t close to condensing or freezing.
The three laws I’ve mentioned so far can be combined into one rule. In fact, even better than that. If you work with moles of gas (i.e., accounting for the differences in molecular weight), you can bring in Avogadro’s law, which states that one mole of gas, at standard temperature (25 C) and pressure (one atmosphere) occupies 22.4 liters. So you can, if your name is name is Benoit Paul Emile Clapeyron and it’s 1834, tie all these other laws to that (double the temperature and leave pressure constant and that mole occupies 44.8 liters; leave the volume constant and the pressure doubles to 2 atmospheres, etc.) and write:
PV = nRT
Where P is pressure, V is volume, T is temperature, n is the number of moles…and R is the fudge-factor constant. Without it, the law becomes a bunch of “is proportional to” statements, much messier to deal with and harder to nail down.
I once had to pressure-test gas piping, in winter. I’d pump a bunch of air into the line, measure the pressure and seal it off. Then come back a day later and hope the pressure had stayed the same.
But this was winter, in Colorado, and the temperature can change a LOT, day to day. Which would mean the pressure would change even without a leak. It could go up (which would confuse the ignorant and make him suspect a prankster was pumping more air into the system), or down (which would make him think he’d messed up the pipe work). But I knew better. Volume, of course was constant, so was simply dealing with Gay Lussac’s law. I’d convert the temperature to the absolute scale (for this I did use Rankines since I was starting with Fahrenheit), and see if the pressure I had initially measured dropped or rose to what it should be. (And of course, there really were a number of leaks…and it didn’t help that the pressure gauge was one of them!) But at least once I got a new pressure gauge and fixed my work, I knew it was good and didn’t get thrown off by the 30 degree temperature one day dropping to -10 the next day (which is enough to reduce the pressure almost seven percent all by itself).
Well, there are two possible directions to go from here…and I’ll take them both. See you next time.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Mozart
Sedate. The adagio (2nd movement) from his clarinet concerto.
And a bit…less sedate. Last movement of his Symphony #41 which is the last one he wrote.
(Don’t be fooled by the fact that there’s a Symphony #42, or 43, or…well up to #55 at least…as I explained last time the numbering isn’t really chronological. To the best of my knowledge he’s got at least 51 symphonies under his belt (though some are disputed), so if we were ever to renumber them, this one would be #51. But we never will renumber them; that would cause confusion for centuries.)
By the way, that sucker ends in a five part fugue. Not easy to write!
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Gold seems to be see-sawing around the $1900 mark. This is what we’ve been seeing for months now. No…wait. Until just a couple of weeks ago it was see-sawing around the $1800 mark.
I start these posts by copying the one from five weeks ago. That way I get to keep the eagle from back then. One of my chores is to go in and modify the precious metals prices (which otherwise would be, respectively, six and five weeks out of date on publication).
But this time I’m going to keep them, just to show you.
Gold actually crossed the 1900 line briefly last week. Now it has been above and below it; it is at $1908.50 right this second (12:14 PM Wednesday). Thursday, it touched $1980.10 briefly in overnight trading.
Wow! That’s not an all time high but it’s within sight of it (I believe the all time high was about $2025.)
So here it is, Friday after markets closed and we see:
Gold has been shoved down ninety dollars from its midweek high.
JWST Update
Webb has made a lot of progress just in the last couple of days. There have been two entries to the blog. The first was basically explaining in a great deal of technical detail how it’s going to search for very early galaxies. This is to try to shed some light (so to speak) on how galaxies formed in the first place. This happened at a time before the maximum look-back time Hubble could see. https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2022/02/24/to-find-the-first-galaxies-webb-pays-attention-to-detail-and-theory/
But today I checked again, and it looks like HUGE progress has been made on the mirror alignment. They’re still looking at HD 84406, a star in Ursa Major that’s fairly bright (but still not bright enough to be seen with the unaided eye) but more importantly relatively isolated on the celestial sphere.
Here’s the blog entry: https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2022/02/25/webb-mirror-alignment-continues-successfully/ I will summarize below.
Last week they had swiveled all of the segments so that the light from each segment landed in a certain place, forming a pattern that matched up with the actual layout of the mirrors.
This week they tried to focus each individual mirror, and it appears they have largely succeeded. Here is a GIF showing “before” and “after”
Not only did they complete that step (which is step 2 of the mirror work), but then they swiveled the mirrors some more, and put all 18 images in the same place, completing step 3! (They weren’t even scheduled to start work on it for another week or so!)
HD 84406, as seen by JWST with the 18 individual mirror images stacked but not yet in phase.
Now, you’ll notice six spikes coming off the star, and they are showing diffraction (they look dotted). That’s because the mirrors are not in phase with each other–in other words the distance the light must travel from each mirror to the sensor is not quite the same. If the difference is a full wavelength, it doesn’t matter, but if the difference is a partial wavelength, it will. (And different colors of light will have different wavelengths, so some light is in phase, and others going through the same two mirrors, is not–unless the length of the path through each mirror is exactly the same.) So now they are going to do Step 4, “coarse phasing” as the first part of sharpening the image. (Step 5 is “fine phasing,” Step 6 “Telescope Alignment” and Step 7, “Final Correction.”
According to the Where’s Webb page, four of the five sensors are at temperatures ranging from 38-48 K (-392 to -373 F), but one, MIRI (which is being used for most of this alignment work) is at 112 K (-258 F).
Round, Comma Dammit!
I shouldn’t even have to write this. It has been just about 2,500 years since people figured out Earth is round. In other words this was Old News when Jesus was preaching. But such is the abysmal state of science education today, that many are taken in by hucksters and outright bullshitters who can slip subtle lies into their arguments, and be convinced the earth is flat.
OK, I’m going to deal with some terminology. I don’t want to say “Earth has a spherical shape” because a sphere is a precisely defined mathematical concept (the set of all points that are at the same distance, r, from a given point in three dimensional space). Which means that, technically, a bump the size of a coronavirus on the surface of the earth is enough to make it not-a-sphere. Of course, there are much bigger bumps on the earth, anything from a fire ant hill in southern Louisiana, to big mountains like the rather famous one to my west.
But then, on the other hand, all of that isn’t enough to make the earth (proportionally) less spherical than a cue ball.
Even the fact that the earth is slightly oblate (thicker through the equator) and that deviation from a perfect sphere is greater than that caused by mountains, isn’t enough to make the earth less spherical than a cue ball.
But Earth is better described as an oblate ellipsoid, than as a sphere. But terrain, and a few bulges caused by the fact that the earth’s interior is not perfectly uniform, mean it’s not quite an oblate ellipsoid, either.
So to avoid nitpickers, I’m just going to say it’s round. Or if I need a noun, I’ll say “ellipsoid.” Rounder than a cue ball, but not quite a perfect sphere or even oblate ellipsoid.
Round, comma dammit.
What Does It Take to Replace an Accepted Theory?
I could just as easily have titled this section “What Does It Take to Revise an Accepted Theory,” too.
And another note on terminology. A theory to a scientist is something that is actually pretty solid. It’s almost settled. (Nothing is absolutely settled.) They’d be greatly surprised to find it wasn’t true. (But they are quite conscious of the fact that surprises do happen!) In popular parlance “theory” is a much weaker word. [Hence the (ignorant) argument that goes “It’s just a theory…”] We have the theory of gravitation, atomic theory, and so forth; these are all pretty “solid” right now.
When a scientist is spitballing, speculating, or has something he believes is supported well enough by the evidence to be worth considering and testing, that is a hypothesis. In writing the physics series I tried to avoid explanations that are currently at the level of speculation, though I included one very strong one, cosmic inflation (there’s little doubt it happened; the problem is they don’t have any clue why or how, so they don’t claim it’s a full-on theory–yet).
Basically it takes three things to get scientists to the point where they will reject an old theory.
There must be something the accepted theory doesn’t explain very well (or at all); the more the better. One or two anomalies will make scientists wonder what they’re doing wrong or if there’s some subtlety in the current theory that they’re missing, lots of anomalies will make them question the theory itself.
There must be a proposed replacement theory that explains those things, and also explains the stuff the prior theory DIDexplain well. That’s key. If you chuck out theory A for theory B because theory A didn’t explain phenomenon 27 (but does explain 1-26), then even if B explains phenomenon 27 perfectly, it is no good unless it explains 1-26 as least as well is A did. Otherwise you’re just trading one problem for another.
The proposed replacement has to make some sort of prediction of a phenomenon never seen before, that the old theory does not. And then this phenomenon must be found by observation or experiment.
To take an example, Einstein’s General Relativity replaced Newtonian gravitation. How did it do it? Let’s step through the list above.
Mercury’s orbital semimajor axis was precessing around the Sun, and only part of the motion could be explained as perturbations from other planets. This wasn’t enough to junk Newtonian gravity, or even seriously call it into question, however, because there’s always the chance of an unseen body accounting for the difference. Astronomers looked for it but couldn’t find it. But that just left an irritating question mark especially since such an object would be very hard to see.
The proposed replacement theory would explain Mercury’s precession perfectly. (It was one of the highlights of Einstein’s life when he did the computation and it matched.) But it also correctly explained every other planetary motion as well as the old Newtonian theory did, because further away from the sun, the math of General Relativity reduces to Newton’s Law of gravitation; the additional terms fade to insignificance.
General Relativity predicted that strong gravity would bend light. This was totally outside of anything Newtonian gravity would do, and was a phenomenon not directly connected to Mercury’s orbit. So if someone looked and it turned out gravity bends light, this criterion is satisfied. And indeed only four years after GR was published as a hypothesis, Arthur Eddington observed the Sun bending light from stars near it in the sky during a total solar eclipse.
Another example is plate tectonics (a/k/a “continental drift”), which was initially laughed at, largely because no one could explain how the continents could possibly move, but then it turned out to explain things that hadn’t been noticed yet and the explanation for how it could happen, was uncovered. That’s a fantastic story, and it happened largely in the 1960s. There are still geologists alive who remember that; when their whole subject got upended, and things they had no understanding of (such as why volcanoes and earthquakes happened in some places but not others) began to make sense. And now, of course, geology simply doesn’t make any sense without it. What a thrilling time to live through! [I could maybe do a post on this–or maybe a short series of them–but geology is even less my bailiwick than chemistry is.]
Returning to today’s topic, we have an accepted theory, Round Earth. More specifically we have “Round Earth that rotates on an axis, and orbits the sun in an elliptical path, and the axis is tilted with respect to the plane of the orbit around the sun.” Round Earth isn’t the only component that matters, the rest does too. But I’m going to refer to the grouping as “Round Earth” for convenience.
There is a proposed replacement hypothesis (though I hesitate to dignify it with that term), “Flat Earth.” The idea is that the earth is actually a disk, laid out much like the UN flag. Everything we see on earth is on one of the two faces of the disk, which you can think of as facing “up.” The sun and moon move around entirely above this disc, in circular paths centered on the “north pole” (i.e., the center of the disk). Antarctica is a raised rim around the edge of the disk. Different suggestions are made for how the sun and moon move.
How does it fare with the three criteria?
Round Earth explains the (apparent) motion of the sun across the sky, the length of a day, the seasons, the year, and the (apparent) motion of the celestial sphere. It also explains sunsets, lunar eclipses and solar eclipses. So far as I know, there’s nothing relevant that a good theory of this type should explain, that Round Earth doesn’t explain. (I qualify like this because of course Round Earth can’t explain such inexplicable phenomena as more than three people actually voting for His Fraudulency–because they are totally unrelated phenomena. It doesn’t explain everything; just everything that it ought to be able to explain.)
One putative example that was brought to my attention turned out to be a conflation of the sidereal day (rotation of the earth relative to the stars) with the mean solar day (rotation of the earth relative to the sun). Unfortunately, when elementary school teachers explain Round Earth to their students, they simplify it to the point where it’s possible to confuse these concepts, and I don’t blame them; explaining the difference would treble the length of the lesson. But unfortunately, that confusion sticks around in many people’s minds, ready to be exploited by charlatans.
Another “proof” that the earth cannot be round was brought up in that intercontinental aircraft flights from the southern hemisphere always go to the northern hemisphere, rather than to another southern continent. E.g., no flights from Australia to South America. This is supposedly because the distance is actually much, much greater than it would be if the earth were round. Unfortunately this claim is simply a LIE, as such flights do exist.
Flat earth not only doesn’t explain anything that Round Earth cannot, it utterly fails to explain things that Round Earth does explain. This is a huge failure. It’s masked to some extent because as it turns out there isn’t a flat earth theory. There are several of them, and they’re inconsistent with each other. Usually a flat earth theory can explain something we can see, but not anything else. For that you need a different flat earth theory. As long as they can drag one of these out of the closet to answer an objection, hopefully no one will notice it contradicts the one brought up five minutes before for the prior objection.
It can’t even make a prediction. That’s because it’s multiple theories with multiple models. Nevertheless, some predictions are made, but turn out to be false. For instance, according to Flat Earth, Antarctica is actually an icy fringe around the edge of the earth, and to protect the Flat Earth secret, people aren’t allowed to go there. This fails, of course, because people do go there.
Let’s look at #2 some more. Here’s a list of things Flat Earth cannot explain, at least not without switching through various variants of the model(s).
No Flat Earth map ever includes a scale that lets you determine the distance between any two points. A globe, of course, can and does.
Flat Earth cannot explain differing day lengths, in the Southern hemisphere, or rather, in the continents closer to the edge. According to the Flat Earth model, during the (northern) summer, the sun is running in a circle around the center point (which is the north pole to Round Earthers), fairly close to the center. But then in (northern) winter, the sun recedes further from the center and makes a larger circle around the center point. Since it’s further away from the continents clustered near the center point, those continents are colder at this time of year. The problem is, when the sun is over south America, for instance, in January, it illuminates all of Antarctica (even the parts on the opposite edge of the disk) while NOT illuminating the Arctic Ocean at all (even though the arctic is between the sun and that part of Antarctica.
Because this is such a huge fail, Flat Earthers have to assert that we’re not allowed to go to Antarctica, or we’d see the problem.
Make any sort of astronomical prediction. Given the Flat Earth model, you should be able to tell me where any object “up there” will be at any time. You should be able to predict solar and lunar eclipses, for instance. Round Earth can do this, with great precision, certainly good enough I could go see the total solar eclipse of 2017. More mundanely it can tell you how high in the sky the sun will be at any given time, at any given location. Flat Earth cannot. If they were to try, they might be right some small fraction of the times and places, but the geometry won’t allow it to be simultaneously right for a number of places all at the same time, or for the same place at multiple times. (And if you cannot make a prediction, your theory is useless.)
If the earth is flat, it should be possible to see (say) Pikes Peak from St. Louis. There’s nothing in between tall enough to get in the way. If you’re worried there might be some hill I am forgetting about, go up into the Gateway Arch and look out the windows on the west side. (Note that Flat Earth adherents do post photos claiming “you shouldn’t be able to see this” but it’s generally over water, and a city skyline that’s quite a lot closer.)
Instead of just taking a picture of a far away boat over water, how about watching it as it moves away? If the earth is flat, it should just get smaller and smaller. Instead, it will disappear bottom-up, sort of as if it was curving down over the horizon.
Sunsets. If the sun and moon stay above the disc, how do you explain sunsets? Ironically, the believers in Flat Earth from centuries ago would have no problem with this; the sun drops down through the plane of the disk, travels under the disk and rises on the other side. But that old idea can’t explain why it’s daytime in Tokyo when it’s midnight in the US, so it had to be discarded. But now it can’t explain sunset. What you would expect to see is the sun getting smaller and smaller as it moves further away, then eventually you can’t see it at all and it’s nighttime. That’s not what we see; the sun does not change apparent size in any appreciable way over the course of the day.
Lunar eclipses are impossible with this theory. What shadow can be cast upon the moon when the sun and moon are always above the disk of the earth? Instead, we see the shadow of something ROUND cross the face of the moon. Always round, always with the same radius, no matter where the moon appears in the sky. Almost as if something nearly spherical were casting a shadow on the moon (since a sphere is the only thing that would do this without fail regardless of the orientation), eh?
What would you see if you attached a camera to a weather balloon and sent it up there to where the Sun and Moon (which according to Flat Earth are small and close to the earth) are?
Flat Earth fails on all of these.
I watched a series of videos on this and it added to my list of objections to the flat earth theory. The background is the channel owner took on Flat Earth, then caught a ton of flak from the Flat Earthers. He then published a second video, and a third, and a fourth (actually a four parter), over the space of a few years. The last quadruplet is most useful because it tells you about things you can do to validate round earth and disprove flat earth, without having to do a lot of math and physics.
He is very snarky (meaning he insults the other side routinely and IMHO quite unnecessarily) but his actual arguments are solid. I’m going to paste in the four parter here. If you want to see the earlier videos (which are much longer), he links to them in the descriptions.
If this guy is so obnoxious, why am I using his videos? Because he has a lot of graphics that makes the point clear, and I haven’t the time to duplicate them. So please, ignore the insults.
Flat earth cannot explain how the moon can present the same face to us, no matter where we are. (Cued up after the snarky intro.)
Flat Earth cannot explain the differing behaviors of stars in the sky, by latitude. Again cued up after the snarky intro.
Direct flights in the southern hemisphere. In fact the graphic in the thumbnail is wrong; the flight should skirt Antarctica…but that’s even worse for Flat Earth theory.
As it happens, Flat Earth comes with a conspiracy theory. Apparently, lots of people conspire to suppress the “truth.” But there are problems with that…it’s too many people.
Now here’s the absolute best part.
There is a flat earther by the name of Bob Knodel. He at one point claimed to be a commercial pilot (and therefore could put the lie to Round Earth, if it were in fact a lie), but was exposed as lying about that.
He then actually did something responsible and ran an experiment to try to prove Round Earth wrong. Since, according to Round Earth, any point on the surface of the earth is rotating every 24 hours, a gyroscope ought to pick that up, since it will not rotate. So if the gyroscope appears to be turning 15 degrees every hour, it’s a sign the earth is rotating once every 24 hours. If it isn’t, though…then Round Earth is bunk.
I’ll give him credit for running the test.
Well, he performed the experiment, and saw the 15 degree per hour turn.
Flat Earthers love to claim Round Earthers are dogmatic and only repeating what they’ve been told in school, but that is exactly what Bob is doing here. He is ignoring and trying to explain away a result that supports the theory he claims is wrong. Evidence is staring him in the face, but he’s sticking to HIS damned dogma. Further experiments trying to eliminate other possible effects lead to the same result. But will he consider for a moment his bullshit flat earth theory might be wrong? Nope.
As I said, I give him credit for running the test, and then trying to control for other things.
But no credit for refusing to believe what it was telling him.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
The So-Called Vax
I think I can actually make sense of the Vaxers now. (And I’m going to call it the “treatment” from here forward.)
Everything they do makes sense (from their point of view, that is), if you assume that they believe the purpose of the treatment is to prevent the recipient from infecting others. It’s not to protect the recipient from others, it’s to protect others from the recipient.
(Now it is true that an actual vax helps slow the spread of the disease. I know you can sometimes transmit a disease if vaxed, but it’s more difficult if you don’t actually don’t catch it. But I am not talking about the side-benefit of a real vax; I’m talking about what they think of THIS treatment, where, apparently the only benefit it confers is to prevent people from transmitting it.)
Under those circumstances, they can consider you selfish for not wanting to protect others. After all you refuse to take a treatment that will prevent others from catching the disease from you. And, indeed, they do consider you “selfish” and not in the positive way that Ayn Rand used the term.
But it’s yet another one of those things where ONE non-compliant individual ruins it for everyone else–at least, that’s what they think it is. ONE untreated person could infect the entire human race, because they aren’t protected from him.
Never mind that this is not what a vaccine is supposed to be doing. If you assume that the motherf*cking toilet licker in front of you shrieking about how you’re Satan Incarnate for not being jabbed believes that the sole purpose of the treatment is to prevent the recipient from spreading the disease–not to prevent the recipient from catching it–suddenly his behavior makes sense, at least based on what he believes (and you can’t expect anyone to behave in accordance with things they don’t believe).
So perhaps the best way to argue with these people is to simply point out calmly that a vaccine (their word) is supposed to protect the recipient from those with the disease [which of course we say] not prevent them from giving it to other people [identify their false premise and face it head on] they might actually feel like they’re being argued with, rather than talked past.
If you don’t confront their actual premise, arguing with them can accomplish nothing.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Mozart
Sedate. The adagio (2nd movement) from his clarinet concerto.
And a bit…less sedate. Last movement of his Symphony #41 which is the last one he wrote.
(Don’t be fooled by the fact that there’s a Symphony #42, or 43, or…well up to #55 at least…as I explained last time the numbering isn’t really chronological. To the best of my knowledge he’s got at least 51 symphonies under his belt (though some are disputed), so if we were ever to renumber them, this one would be #51. But we never will renumber them; that would cause confusion for centuries.)
By the way, that sucker ends in a five part fugue. Not easy to write!
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Is this a break out? Platinum and palladium are up like gangbusters. Rhodium hasn’t moved much, but gold and silver are up fairly nicely (again, today they’re down, Thursday’s close was even higher).
Is the inflation of the “Fern” (Federal Reserve Note) finally manifesting?
JWST Update
The James Webb Space Telescope has succesfully deployed all 18 pieces of the primary mirror and the secondary mirror from their “stowed for launch” positions. That involved moving them half an inch (12.5mm) from where they were before, using the same actuators that will be used over the next three months for the next major phase of the mission.
I was surprised to see that NASA had slipped the L2 insertion burn a day. I didn’t think that was possible; at some point the spacecraft has reached where it needs to be to do this, and you don’t want to miss the window. Obviously, I don’t know all the details…because despite being originally scheduled for Sunday, it’s now slated for Monday.
At some point after that, I believe, they will begin the process of lining up the mirror segments with each other. They need to mimic a single parabolic mirror, and that will require them all to be re-positioned with accuracies of less than ten billionths of a meter. This will be done with the same motors that took the mirrors out of “stowed” position. That motion was a million times larger, yet the same actuators were responsible. It’s as if you had a combined brain surgery scalpel/chain saw for cutting things around the house. The mirror alignment is expected to take three months, and the impression I’ve received is that they will be done one at a time and checked with algorithms that have benefited people with certain visual impairments here on Earth (including one that I have). I have no idea how much, if any, NASA will be updating people during the process.
Meanwhile the sensors that these mirrors gather the light for, continue to cool and will also be brought on line and calibrated. We’re still looking at June for the first meaningful pictures, which will be false-color infrared pictures.
The First Exoplanets Not Orbiting Star Corpses
One Last Detection Method
There’s one more, rather rare, method of detecting extrasolar planets (or “Exoplanets” for short) and the surprising thing about this method is it actually has happened.
Occasionally we will see one (fairly close) star pass directly in front of a more distant star; the closer star will appear to be moving faster (more likely) than the distant one.
When that happens, the gravity of the nearer star bends some of the starlight from the more distant star, and that star is “gravitationally lensed.” More light from that star reaches us than would otherwise be the case and it gets brighter as the other star crosses in front of it.
This has actually been observed to happen. Furthermore, sometimes there’s a secondary “spike” in the brightness of the distant star, which we believe is due to gravitational lensing around a planet of the nearby star. It’s a lot weaker and of shorter duration than the main event, but it can be detected.
It seems incredibly unlikely that this should ever happen, but it has. A small (but significant) number of exoplanets have been detected this way. However, we’ll almost certainly never be able to confirm the planet by the same means, because the star would have to pass directly in front of yet another star for this to happen.
But that’s getting ahead of our story for tonight.
Patience Rewarded
Geoffrey WIlliam Marcy (b. 1954) was, in the early 1990s, chasing rainbows. He was having trouble with his main line of research, and was beginning to think he was a failure as an astrophysicist. So he decided to flame out with a bang…and search for exoplanets.
Remember that back then, this was something no one wanted to be caught dead trying to do; it smacked too much of looking for E.T.
That didn’t stop Marcy; he began trying to use the Doppler Shift method I described last week. And I should have been more careful describing it; it turns out it’s called the “Radial Velocity Method.”
He looked for years, and found nothing. His instruments weren’t sensitive enough to detect a small (Earth size, say, or smaller) planet, and there simply weren’t any indications of large planets, either. He had spent years looking for a signal of a large planet, in a large (and therefore long-period) orbit. This is what everyone expected. But, nothing.
But then in December, 1995, Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, Swiss astronomers, reported having found an exoplanet in orbit around a star named 51 Pegasi.
“51 Pegasi” is a “Flamsteed designation” according to a system invented by John Flamsteed in the early 1700s; he essentially numbered the stars in each constellation, and 51 Pegasi is a star in the constellation Pegasus. Almost every naked-eye-visible star visible from England got a Flamsteed number. This includes stars that already had a Bayer designation (constellation name plus a Greek letter). For instance Betelgeuse, Alpha Orinonis, is also 58 Orionis according to the Flamsteed designation.
The upshot is that 51 Pegasi is a faint star, but is visible to the naked eye (barely) on a very dark night far away from city lights. In fact, it’s of almost exactly the same spectral class as our Sun; it’s a G2IV whereas our Sun is a G2V. It’s believed to be a bit older (6.1-8.1 billion years versus 4.6 billion) than our Sun.
But it’s a nice, ordinary star, maybe getting a bit long in the tooth, but a nice, ordinary star. Not some pulsar corpse of a star, made of solid neutronium, spewing massive amounts of radiation everywhere like a firehose as it spins like a top hundreds of times a second!
The planet was immediately designated 51 Pegasi b (according to that convention I complained about two weeks ago), and it fell to Marcy and his team mates to confirm it.
Which they almost immediately did.
It didn’t take long to do so. They were able to watch it orbit 51 Pegasi a couple of times, because this planet (originally dubbed Bellerophon, after the mythic rider of Pegasus, but now called Dimidium), has a 4.23 day year. So they could look for a Doppler “wobble” with that period, and they found it, immediately.This is a damned short year. Mercury is the closest planet to our Sun, and its year is 88 days.
In other words, no one expected such a short year, from any sort of planet.
But that wasn’t the biggest surprise. The planet’s mass is 0.46 Jupiter masses; in other words, it’s more massive than Saturn. It’s a gas giant!
OK, now if you remember back two weeks, I described what we expected a “typical” planetary system to look like…based on our own. And the gas giants should be far away from their stars. Not just because that’s what we see here, but because there’s simply no way they could form any closer to a star; it’s simply too hot for the ices, and the hydrogen and helium, to hang around long enough for the rocky core of such a planet to be able to capture them. Out at 5 AU, it is possible–that’s Jupiter’s distance–but at 0.05 AU, where 51 Pegasi b is, no way!
That sound you’re imagining is the sound of bullshit meters pegging in the skulls of every astronomer and astrophysicist in the world.
But here was a discovery, from Switzerland, confirmed by a team in the United States, of something that shouldn’t exist.
Well, OK…maybe the planet formed farther out and somehow migrated inwards? Seems unlikely, but it could happen. Current thinking is that much of the time, planet formation is a very chaotic process and planets, as they form, fling other planets clear out of the planetary system, to wander forever in interstellar space as “rogue” planets. Or planets can be flung into their stars. Or into some close orbit.
But it gets better: Marcy and his team may not have bagged the first planet orbiting a normal star, but they had been gathering spectroscopic data from hundreds of stars for years. When they went back and looked–this time for very short period signals instead of ones with periods of several years–they found a lot of exoplanets like 51 Pegasi b.
Within two months, Marcy’s team was able to announce planets orbiting 47 Ursae Majoris (the Big Bear) and 70 Virginis (Virgo).
47 Ursae Majoris b is at least a bit more normal. The parent star is again, very much like our Sun. The planet orbits in just under 3 years at a distance of 2.1 AU. But it is at least 2.5 times as massive as Jupiter. (Remember that masses found by the Doppler method are minimums; if the orbit is tilted with respect to our line of sight, then some of the velocity of the star induced by the planet is transverse, rather than radial and the Doppler effect is smaller than it “should” be…meaning the planet is more massive than the signal would indicate.)
That’s still a bit close to its star for a gas giant. And yes, as mentioned, it’s a bigger planet than Jupiter. How big can a planet get? Once it gets to be about 10-14 Jupiter masses, it’s considered a “brown dwarf” star since some nuclear fusion of rare isotopes of hydrogen and helium can (and does) occur.
(Today, we know there are two other planets orbiting 47 Ursae Majoris orbiting at 3.6 and 11.6 AUs. That outer planet takes almost 40 years to orbit and has the distinction of being the longest-period planet ever discovered by the radial velocity method.)
70 Virginis is a star a bit more massive than the Sun and might be starting to swell into a red giant phase. It has a planet orbiting it, about 7.5 Jupiter masses…and it’s in a 116 day orbit. Although not as extreme as 51 Pegasi b, it’s too close to be a gas giant. But the bigger surprise is that the orbit’s eccentricity is 0.4!
One of the other things we expected, based on our own Solar System, was that planets would be in almost circular orbits. A circular orbit has an eccentricity of 0.0. 0.4 starts looking distinctly oval shaped.
Red: Eccentricity 0 (a circular orbit) Green: Eccentricity 0.2 Cyan: Eccentricity 0.4 Orange: Eccentricity 0.6 Magenta: Eccentricity 0.8 All orbits have the same semimajor axis (that’s half of the width of the ellipse, measured the long way), so the planets shown have the same period. Note how much the magenta planet speeds up and slows down, though.
(Mercury is the most eccentric planetary orbit in our Solar System, at about 0.2. Which is why it was possible to spot the precession of its aphelion so easily, as figured into Einstein’s discovery of general relativity.)
A large planet in an eccentric orbit will tend to destabilize things in orbits in between its periastron (closest approach) and apoastron (furthest distance) from the star it’s orbiting. So this is yet more evidence of chaos in planetary system formation.
Many of Marcy’s exoplanets turned out to be gas giants orbiting “too close” to their stars…so we’ve given this absurd-seeming class of planets a name: we call them “Hot Jupiters.”
And they don’t seem to make sense. But they were, for a while, by far the most common kind of planet we knew of.
But…and this is an important lesson…that is because they were far and away the easiest to detect! They orbited close to their parent star (which increased the Doppler wobble) and they are massive (which increases the Doppler wobble). Remember, a nice normal planet like Earth would be undetectable by this method! So of course they didn’t find anything like Earth, because they couldn’t.
Kepler Space Telescope (2009-2018)
Fast forward to 2009. The business of looking for exoplanets is now very respectable.
And NASA launched a space telescope named Kepler, after Johannes Kepler (1571-1630), who first identified the laws of planetary orbital motion. There couldn’t be a better choice of name.
This was a very specialized instrument. It did exactly one thing. It hunted for exoplanets.
It simply stared at a patch of sky near the constellation Cygnus (the Swan, it contains the Northern Cross). It continuously stared at 150,000 stars all at once, watching their brightness.
Kepler Field Of View
What was it doing? It was applying the transit method of detecting extrasolar planets.
If you recall, this method relies on the planet crossing between us and the star it’s orbiting. This is a very unlikely configuration (the orbit could be tilted at any angle with respect to the line of sight; it has to be very, very close to crossing directly through our line of sight to see the planet move in front of its star). But if you’re looking at a hundred and fifty thousand stars all at once, you will get some hits. If there are any planets. And remember that if you can detect a planet this way, you won’t just get its mass and its orbital period, you’ll get a good estimate of its physical size…and hence you’ll be able to compute its density. And that tells you whether it’s made of rocks or gas…or ice.
In other words, we could collect a statistically meaningful sample to find out just how common exoplanets really were (many times as common as were detected, because most planets won’t transit as seen from here). The transit method is more sensitive and can detect planets closer to Earth-like if it works at all.
One vital condition of “earthlike” is the size of the planet…but another is its distance from the star it’s orbiting. We want to know if the planet is at a temperature where water can be a liquid on its surface. And that requires that it be in the “Goldilocks zone.” Not too hot, not too cold…but just right. More formally, this is called the star’s habitable zone. This is about 1 AU out for a star the size (and brightness) of our sun. Most stars are smaller and cooler and their habitable zones are closer to the star as a consequence.
The mission ran until 2018, when Kepler ran out of fuel. It was switched off on November 15th, the 388th anniversary of Johannes Kepler’s death.
And Kepler found 2,662 confirmed exoplanets–plus an additional 3600 unconfirmed candidates. Every star that seemed to have planets got a Kepler number, e.g., Kepler 1544, so the exoplanets have imaginative names like Kepler-1544 b.
In many cases multiple planets were detected orbiting a star.
A handful of these planets orbit in the habitable zone and appear to be rocky planets. In fact, Kepler-1544 b is one of them. Its radius is 1.78 times as much as Earth, and the mass is 3.84 times as much as Earth.
There are a number of these “Super Earths,” in fact, many not in their stars’ habitable zones. It’s hard, even with this method, to detect smaller planets. The planet orbits at about .54 AU with a year of 168 days. This is NOT too close to the star, however, because Kepler-1544 is a cooler star than our Sun. In fact most finds seem to have been around stars markedly cooler than the Sun.
Want to see the list? Here you go, knock yourself out.
Here’s another one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler-1649 . This star appears to have both a Venus-like planet and an Earth like planet in orbit about it. The star itself is a red dwarf, so the planets orbit at less than 0.1 AU, and their years are 8 and 19 days long, respectively.
Post Kepler
Kepler did a lot of work, but others have been adding to the count.
One system that is famous right now is TRAPPIST-1. It’s 39 light years away in the direction of Aquarius, and is 9% as massive as the Sun–hence much cooler in temperature. In 2016-17, astronomers at the Transiting Planets and Planetesimals Small Telescope in Chile discovered that there are no less than seven terrestrial (rocky) planets in orbit about this star. Three, or maybe even four, of the planets appear to be in the habitable zone. Orbits range from 0.011 to 0.06 AUs. Remember this is a cool star. In fact, it radiates mostly in the infrared, so even at noon on the planets, it probably wouldn’t seem brighter than at sunset here on Earth, though temperatures would be closer to “normal.”
(Apparently Kepler did look at this star at one point.)
There is also a new satellite, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), launched in 2018. It has already found over four thousand candidate planets, yet to be confirmed.
Using the gravitational lensing method, in 2020 astronomers reported an earth-mass rogue planet (one that is wandering interstellar space). Apparently it crossed in front of some star when someone was looking at that star.
A device called a vortex coronagraph has allowed astronomers to directly image large, distant exoplanets more easily than before. Recall that direct imaging works for such planets (the farther out the better; the closer the star to us, the better); I’ve even seen a time lapse GIF of four planets orbiting a star. The Hale Telescope at Mount Palomar has been very useful for this sort of thing. (Seventy years old and still going strong!)
So, we’re getting better at this. I’ve pointed you to lists and some number counts, but let’s look at a diagram that might clarify things:
The higher up you go on that diagram, the bigger the planet. You can see pictures of Jupiter, Neptune and Earth at the right to give a sense of scale. To the left, planets orbit near their star. Hot Jupiters appear here. To the right, they’re further out and you will see a group labeled “Cold Gas Giants.” Then further down you see large planets that appear as though they may consist largely of water, or ices.
But the overwhelming majority of dots, mostly Kepler detections, are “Rocky planets” like our own, many, many of them much larger than Earth (which is the largest rocky planet in this planetary system). And ones very close to their star are expected to have molten lava surfaces, simply because that close to the star they get very hot.
But in the lower right, is the “Frontier.” If there are planets here, we can’t detect them yet. (And we know of some such planets, for instance Mars.)
The Future
This is very, very much a story in progress. The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to be able to not only see some of these planets, but also detect and analyze their atmospheres.
What we would be really excited to see is planets with water and an oxygen atmosphere.
Water, because that’s the one thing every life form we know of must have. Even oxygen isn’t as universally necessary. (There are bacteria that manage to live in water near boiling, and others that manage to thrive inside nuclear reactors, and of course there are plenty of anaerobic critters out there (like botulism) but nothing we know of can live without water.)
Oxygen, because if we find an oxygen atmosphere it’s almost certainly a sign that life exists on that planet.
If plants stopped photosynthesizing right now, no oxygen would be created. And the oxygen in the air would slowly combine with other things on Earth and be bound up, much like on Mars, which is largely a rusty planet. In other words, an oxygen atmosphere is not stable, because oxygen is so reactive. An oxygen atmosphere can only exist if something continually creates more oxygen. And although there are some other possibilities a strong candidate for creating oxygen would be living things. It would be by far the strongest evidence we have that life exists elsewhere. Though that doesn’t mean “ET” because that life might just be algae–pond scum in other words.
But pond scum is still life, after all no one accuses Joe Biden of being dead, just demented.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Biden Gives Us Too Much Credit
…we can move on to the next one.
Apparently Biden (or his puppeteer) has decided we’re to blame for all of the fail in the United States today.
Sorry to disappoint you Joe (or whoever), but you managed to do that all on your own; not only that, you wouldn’t let us NOT give you the chance because you insisted on cheating your way into power.
Yep, you-all are incompetent, and so proud of it you expect our applause for your sincerity. Fuck that!!
It wouldn’t be so bad, but you insist that everyone else have to share in your misery. Nope, can’t have anyone get out from under it. Somehow your grand vision only works if every single other person on earth is forced to go along. So much as ONE PERSON not going along is enough to make it all fail, apparently.
In engineering school we’re taught that a design that has seven to eight billion single points of failure…sucks.
Actually, we weren’t taught that. Because it would never have occurred to the professors to use such a ridiculous example.
The So-Called Vax
I think I can actually make sense of the Vaxers now. (And I’m going to call it the “treatment” from here forward.)
Everything they do makes sense (from their point of view, that is), if you assume that they believe the purpose of the treatment is to prevent the recipient from infecting others. It’s not to protect the recipient from others, it’s to protect others from the recipient.
(Now it is true that an actual vax helps slow the spread of the disease. I know you can sometimes transmit a disease if vaxed, but it’s more difficult if you don’t actually don’t catch it. But I am not talking about the side-benefit of a real vax; I’m talking about what they think of THIS treatment, where, apparently the only benefit it confers is to prevent people from transmitting it.)
Under those circumstances, they can consider you selfish for not wanting to protect others. After all you refuse to take a treatment that will prevent others from catching the disease from you. And, indeed, they do consider you “selfish” and not in the positive way that Ayn Rand used the term.
But it’s yet another one of those things where ONE non-compliant individual ruins it for everyone else–at least, that’s what they think it is. ONE untreated person could infect the entire human race, because they aren’t protected from him.
Never mind that this is not what a vaccine is supposed to be doing. If you assume that the motherf*cking toilet licker in front of you shrieking about how you’re Satan Incarnate for not being jabbed believes that the sole purpose of the treatment is to prevent the recipient from spreading the disease–not to prevent the recipient from catching it–suddenly his behavior makes sense, at least based on what he believes (and you can’t expect anyone to behave in accordance with things they don’t believe).
So perhaps the best way to argue with these people is to simply point out calmly that a vaccine (their word) is supposed to protect the recipient from those with the disease [which of course we say] not prevent them from giving it to other people [identify their false premise and face it head on] they might actually feel like they’re being argued with, rather than talked past.
If you don’t confront their actual premise, arguing with them can accomplish nothing.
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
Gold tried to break out yet again; apparently it got to $1810 yesterday. But it’s being smacked down again.
The James Webb Space Telescope
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a likely source of future developments in astrophysics. That thirty part series just concluded was historical developments in physics (with a healthy dollop of chemistry and astronomy to go along with it), but this column is about how we are going to do future developments.
JWST will be a big part of it.
That is, of course, if things go well. They’ve already gone over budget and longer than scheduled. But a LOT of things can still go wrong.
A couple of weeks ago I read that it was finally supposed to launch today, the 18th of December. Then I checked again as I wrote last week’s post and the launch date had been slipped to the 22nd, this time because of issues with the booster. (Thursday the 16th: It has now slipped to the 24th and it says “not earlier than” so clearly they expect to slip it again.)
That must be the 1,432,491,315th schedule slip for this project, though someone will no doubt tell me I miscounted slightly. I probably forgot one from back in 2015.
In any case once it launches, the telescope is not out of the woods!!! It must move to a location well beyond any ability to send people to repair it, and then literally hundreds of mechanical devices have to work perfectly as the telescope deploys. They ground team that has to manage this process (to the extent that it can, rather than watching helplessly if something goes wrong) is sweating bullets.
They remember Hubble, whose mirror didn’t have the right curve, which was made useful–gloriously so–by Space Shuttle astronauts retrofitting it with “glasses.” If that, or some similar thing requiring “on the spot” repair happens to JWST, they are Shit Out of Luck because we can’t send people to where JWST will be.
And they remember the Galileo spacecraft sent to Jupiter, whose main antenna didn’t deploy because some widget stuck in place. The spacecraft could collect data…but sending it back to Earth was very difficult because the backup antenna was much smaller, with lower gain.
About a month after launch, we’ll know if it all deployed. Until then, reloaders might just want to hang around the ground crew to catch some of those bullets.
What Is It, And Why Does It Matter?
OK, so what IS the James Webb Space Telescope?
This thing looks like a radio dish antenna on some sort of weird four-deck toboggan, but it’s actually an infrared telescope. It will be sensitive to light from a wavelength of 600 nm all the way to 28,300 nm. (A nm is a nanometer, one billionth of a meter.) This is basically the lower half of the visible range (600nm to about 800nm), and then way down into the infrared.
This is exactly the sort of thing we will need to see further back in time, looking at galaxies and the first stars, the sorts of phenomena we think happened more than 13 billion years ago. Those things are simply redshifted too far for Hubble (which is quoted as only going to 1000 nm wavelength, but I’ve seen other things that indicate it can see further into the infrared) to even see.
Being able to see very early galaxies will shed some light on the question of how they develop into the shapes we’re used to seeing today (spirals, ellipticals, and so on.)
It will also be helpful looking for colder objects much closer to us, like extrasolar planets, debris disks, and Kuiper belt objects similar to Pluto, only much further out. Those debris disks will help answer the nagging questions about planetary system formation.
And it’s quite likely that JWST will be able to look at existing planetary systems and provide a lot of data there as well. If it’s able to detect oxygen atmospheres, that could even be a sign of life Out There.
I haven’t done a post on extrasolar planets, largely because when they were seen it wasn’t really a surprise. (It’d have been much more surprising if no extrasolar planetary systems had been found.) Except that some things we saw were indeed surprising. Perhaps some future Saturday.
OK, so let me describe the telescope itself.
The mirror is 6.5 meters–about 21 feet–across, and it’s made of those gold-colored hexagons. They’re actually gold-plated beryllium (and beryllium was chosen in large part because it is extremely light). Compare to Hubble’s single 7 foot mirror. This thing is designed to capture a lot of light. Or actually, it’s designed to capture as much very faint light as possible, to make up for it being faint. (That’s the ultimate reason to make telescopes larger. Their main purpose isn’t magnification, it’s capturing as much light from faint objects as possible.)
Any spacecraft has to fit inside the “fairing” (the cylindrical or conical compartment at the nose of the rocket), and 21 feet is wider than any fairing out there. Thus the three hexagons on the left, and the three on the right, are actually going to be folded back and will unfold in space. That’s just one of the many mechanical elements that has to work perfectly, Out There.
JWST inside the Ariane 5 rocket’s payload fairing.
Since this telescope is designed to work in the infrared, there are a couple of important considerations that mean we can’t just stick the thing into low earth orbit (LEO) like the Hubble Space Telescope is. The first is that the sun, moon, and earth all glow in the infrared range. I don’t just mean that the earth and moon reflect infrared light like they do visible light from the sun, I mean that they themselves glow in infrared. Black body radiation means everything glows at some frequency. You glow in infrared, too. Night vision goggles work because they can see people (literally) glow in the dark.
So we do not want the moon and earth in the field of view; compared to the faint objects this telescope is designed to see, those will be zillion candlepower searchlights. So the idea is to put the telescope at the Earth Sun L2 point.
This is a point about four times as far away as the moon, but directly opposite of the sun (as seen from the earth). So the Sun, Earth, and JWST will all be on a straight line. JWST will actually orbit the sun, not the Earth, a bit further out from the sun than Earth is.
If it’s further out, won’t it orbit more slowly?
Under normal circumstances, that would be true, but if the spacecraft has both the earth and the sun in the same direction, it feels the gravitation from both at the same time, and in the same direction, so it will behave as if it were orbiting a slightly more massive body than the sun is, and that will speed it up. At a certain precise distance from the earth, it works out that the satellite will also orbit in one year, even though its orbit is larger. This only works, though, if it’s right on the extended line from the sun to the earth.
Here’s a GIF (not to scale) showing the sun and earth, and objects at all five Lagrange points. L2 is the one of interest here.
Note that at L2, the three obnoxious sources of infrared interference are always on the same side of the spacecraft (the moon will be fairly close to the earth, closer than L2 is). So it always has most of the sky to look at.
It will actually orbit about L2, in a ring perpendicular to the plane of Earth’s orbit (as shown in the video below).
But it will be four times further away than any astronaut has ever gone, and that was back in 1972 as part of Apollo. We are not going to be sending astronauts up to fix this thing if it goes FUBAR, like we could with Hubble.
It’s bad enough that we have to hope those mirrors unfold, and that then we can get them all aligned precisely to behave as one big mirror. (We have telescopes on earth that work like that–no more big, one-piece mirrors like at Palomar.) But then we have to deploy the heat shield. That’s the four layer toboggan in the diagram above.
Why does it need a heat shield?
In order to function properly, the telescope must be cold. 50K or 370 below zero Fahrenheit. That’s because if it’s any warmer than that the telescope itself will emit infrared radiation that would interfere with its observations.
This might confuse you. After all, it’s beneficial when walking around outside at night to have a headlamp on. Why not have the telescope illuminate what it’s looking at? Well, in the first place, what it’s looking at will be billions of light years away, so the illumination won’t reach it in our lifetimes and won’t matter a bit even if it did. (In fact, the illumination will probably never reach those distant galaxies; they’ve moved further away since they emitted the light we’re hoping to see, and are probably unreachable now even in principle.)
And in the second place, we’re not talking about a headlamp glowing, we are talking about the sensor itself glowing. Imagine if your eyelids, your corneas, your irises, and the very fluid inside your eyeballs was glowing brightly. And on top of this your retina were glowing brightly. In reality. the eye prevents most light from hitting the retina, just admitting enough to create the focused image–it cannot work, otherwise. But if light is coming from inside the eyeball, well, you’d be blind.
That four-layered toboggan is a heat shield; it’s made up of four layers of very thin reflectorized plastic that should act to prevent sunlight from heating the spacecraft. But it has to unroll and deploy into tight sheets that aren’t touching each other. And in certain ground-based tests, that thin film tore, which caused years of delay as they worked to fix that problem.
So those sheets will face the sun. On the underside of the sheets, not very visible in the picture, are solar panels, the downlink antenna, and so on. The solar panels will use the sunlight to power the JWST, and of course the antenna is there so we can download data and upload commands.
So here’s another picture of JWST showing the underside. This is the side that will face the sun, and Earth.
The Sun (and Earth) facing side of JWST. Note the antenna in the center. This picture is apparently at least twelve years old, which gives you an idea of how long this thing has been in the pipeline.
All of this has to deploy perfectly a million miles away…and that’s on top of the spacecraft actually having to reach its destination without the (comparatively simple, but still literally rocket science) rocketry going haywire.
I took a couple of classes on engineering things for space, not nearly enough to be qualified to work on something like this, but I do remember having them beat it into our heads to make the mission as simple as possible. The simpler it is the fewer things that can go wrong, and a mistake is very expensive.
Hundreds of things must go right once the spacecraft has launched. The complete unpacking and deployment should take about three weeks. Then the telescope has to cool.
This video claims a total of six months from launch, to doing work. Most of that time will be taken up with calibration and mirror alignment after the spacecraft “unfolds” in space. But as you watch this video keep in mind that all of the mechanical motions you see have to happen flawlessly, with nothing getting “stuck.”
It has been tested in labs on Earth, but those laboratories can’t duplicate everything in the space environment, and there’s always the chance that the last lab test of some part was the last time it’s going to work before it breaks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggJ7CbKCwBg
That is why they are sweating bullets. Successfully launching the thing will only be the beginning of operational worries, and it’s the last time we will have full physical control of it.
A Long Road
The James Webb Space Telescope is actually a collaboration between NASA, the Canadian Space Agency, and the European Space Agency. In fact, it will be launched from Kourou, in South America, which is the ESA’s launch facility. (It was shipped there recently under high security and secrecy.)
This telescope was first conceived in 1996. Twelve years later it passed its preliminary design review. In 2010 it passed another review indicating that as designed, it would achieve its mission. Launch was tentatively scheduled for 2015.
By 2010 it was suffering cost overruns (insert surprised face here) that were forcing cuts in other programs. (This is a high-priority item!) Add a lot of NASA-typical scheduling delays, and the JWST finally left California on a boat bound for French Guiana in late September of this year. The US share of the cost of building the thing was almost nine billion dollars.
And now we get to see if that money will pay off, or whether we’ll be looking at a very expensive failure.
If it does work well, it will advance our understanding of the universe by leaps and bounds. This must be an exciting (and nervewracking) time to be an astronomer or astrophysicist.
So Who Was James Webb?
Personally, I think a better name for this telescope would be for William Herschel who, after all, discovered infrared light. However, he also discovered Uranus (and tried to name it for a historic-level asshole, George III), so perhaps they’ll name a Uranus orbiter (not, so far as I know, even in planning stages right now) after him instead. That would work.
James Webb was the administrator of NASA from 1961-1968; in other words he oversaw the agency during the days of Mercury and Gemini, and the start of the Apollo program. He left shortly before the first manned Apollo flight…but had already had to deal with the aftermath of the tragic Apollo 1 fire. (Remember the names Gus Grissom, Ed White, and Roger B. Chaffee, the three astronauts who died in that fire on January 27, 1967.)
Before he was at NASA, he served as Undersecretary of State from 1949-1952.
The “Next Generation Space Telescope” was renamed for James Webb in 2002.
Webb is an attempted target of “cancel culture.” Apparently while at State, he was active in an attempt to purge homosexuals from the department, so there have been a recent barrage of suggestions to rename the JWST, even including Harriet Tubman as a suggestion. A less ridiculous suggestion would be to name it after Sally Ride, who at least had something (quite a bit in fact) to do with space exploration.
With that current meat puppet in the White House, strings being pulled by every brand of leftist turd there is, who knows if anything will come of it. The other countries who are involved would probably have to approve a name change since they are footing part of the bill. I could see them maybe approving changing it to another NASA pioneer or scientist, but not Harriet Tubman.
Bonus Section: How Big Is the Universe?
The short answer is: Who knows?
We literally cannot know the answer to this question, because we simply cannot see anything further than 13.8 billion light years away; the light hasn’t had time to reach us. And you can subtract a few hundred thousand years from that as the Cosmic Microwave Background was generated that many years after the big bang.
Scientists talk of the “observable universe” for that reason. The entire universe is at least as big as the observable universe, but we don’t know if it’s one inch larger…or trillions of light years, or perhaps even infinitely large.
But it’s a mistake to figure the observable universe has a radius of 13.8 billion light years. Because since the light from the CMB and early stars and galaxies was created, they have continued to move away from us. By the time you account for this, the things we can (in principle) see today are now located within a sphere 92 billion light years across. And the items furthest away are already receding at a speed higher than that of light, which means that even though we can, today, see the light they emitted in the past, the light they are emitting today won’t reach us, ever.
If light speed is the speed limit, how is it that these things can be receding from us faster than light?
It’s true that you cannot move through space faster than the speed of light in a vacuum, but space itself can certainly stretch faster than that. Since it’s uniformly stretching, objects far enough apart will see the distance between them rise faster than light speed.
There are suggestions that the (total) universe must be at least 250 times the size of the observable universe; if I recall correctly this is from the error margins on the measurements that show space is flat. If it’s not quite flat but in fact is very slightly curved, our measurement method wouldn’t detect it; this comes from considering how curved it could be and still not be detected to be curved.)
My personal suspicion is that it’s infinite, but it’s very possible that we won’t ever know for certain.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
SPECIAL SECTION: Message For Our “Friends” In The Middle Kingdom
I normally save this for near the end, but…basically…up your shit-kicking barbarian asses. Yes, barbarian! It took a bunch of sailors in Western Asia to invent a real alphabet instead of badly drawn cartoons to write with. So much for your “civilization.”
Yeah, the WORLD noticed you had to borrow the Latin alphabet to make Pinyin. Like with every other idea you had to steal from us “Foreign Devils” since you rammed your heads up your asses five centuries ago, you sure managed to bastardize it badly in the process.
Have you stopped eating bats yet? Are you shit-kickers still sleeping with farm animals?
Or maybe even just had the slightest inkling of treating lives as something you don’t just casually dispose of?
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
And here’s my response to barbarian “asshoes” like you:
OK, with that rant out of my system…
Justice Must Be Done.
The prior election must be acknowledged as fraudulent, and steps must be taken to prosecute the fraudsters and restore integrity to the system.
Nothing else matters at this point. Talking about trying again in 2022 or 2024 is hopeless otherwise. Which is not to say one must never talk about this, but rather that one must account for this in ones planning; if fixing the fraud is not part of the plan, you have no plan.
Kamala Harris has a new nickname since she finally went west from DC to El Paso Texas: Westward Hoe.
Lawyer Appeasement Section
OK now for the fine print.
This is the WQTH Daily Thread. You know the drill. There’s no Poltical correctness, but civility is a requirement. There are Important Guidelines, here, with an addendum on 20191110.
We have a new board – called The U Tree – where people can take each other to the woodshed without fear of censorship or moderation.
And remember Wheatie’s Rules:
1. No food fights 2. No running with scissors. 3. If you bring snacks, bring enough for everyone. 4. Zeroth rule of gun safety: Don’t let the government get your guns. 5. Rule one of gun safety: The gun is always loaded. 5a. If you actually want the gun to be loaded, like because you’re checking out a bump in the night, then it’s empty. 6. Rule two of gun safety: Never point the gun at anything you’re not willing to destroy. 7. Rule three: Keep your finger off the trigger until ready to fire. 8. Rule the fourth: Be sure of your target and what is behind it.
(Hmm a few extras seem to have crept in.)
Spot Prices
All prices are Kitco Ask, 3PM MT Friday (at that time the markets close for the weekend).
According to people who read commodities and stock charts for a living, gold has definitely staged a “technical breakout.”
I suppose I should try to explain that statement. (If someone here actually does this for a living, please correct/amplify as warranted.) Apparently the movements of these sorts of prices generally follow certain patterns. For example, you might see something climb, peak, drop, climb again, peak even higher, then drop. Then it will climb again but reach a peak lower than the previous peak. Because you see three peaks with the one in the middle higher than the two on the sides, it’s called a “head and shoulders” pattern, and generally they expect to see the stock or commodity drop a lot coming off that third peak. There’s also a tendency for prices to move up and down in a narrow channel (which may itself be rising, falling, or staying the same). This sort of thing works well until it doesn’t; the idea is to spot when the current pattern is failing.
It also matters–a lot–the time range you’re using to look at the graph. Gold apparently was in a flagpole-and-pennant pattern, which ends with it bouncing up and down in a narrowing range (the pennant; it looks a bit like a triangle pointing to the right). When the point of the pennant is reached, a big move is expected. It could be up or down.
According to this analysis, we’re seeing the big move right now, and it’s up. The trick is knowing how far up it will go. Apparently if gold can break $1900 it’s expected to go to $2000, and at least one “expert” has said it’s likely to do so.
I have hedged my wording quite a lot, because these “rules” aren’t rules, they are tendencies and sometimes they do go wrong. If you decide to rush off and buy a 400 oz bar, and gold turns around and crashes unexpectedly dropping 300 bucks, and you lose $120,000…well, it’s not MY fault; I am NOT giving advice and even if I were, you wouldn’t have to follow it.
What am I going to do? Absolutely nothing. I have a position in gold and I don’t plan to alter it. I’ve learned that I absolutely suck at short-term plays.
Part XXV: The Particle Zoo
Introduction/Recap
We’re going back inside the atom again. Only natural since last time we were doing cosmology. And if that sounds like irony to you, it really isn’t. The two subjects are inextricably tied together; cosmologists pay a lot of attention to particle physics.
As of 1935, our picture of the “innards” of atoms consisted of electrons (very light particles with a “negative” electric charge) “orbiting” a much heavier nucleus (at least 1800 times the mass of the electrons, sometimes much more). That nucleus in turn consisted of “positive” charged protons (about the same number as electrons; in fact for an neutral, unionized atom, the exact same number) and (except in the case of Hydrogen-1, the most common atom in the universe by far) some number of neutrons. The electron and proton charges were equal in strength but opposite each other (making it mathematically natural to call one charge e and the other charge -e, as if they were mathematical opposites; however the assignment of -e to the electron was historical accident that goes back to Founding Father Benjamin Franklin). The neutron has no electric charge at all. The neutron and proton are almost exactly the same mass (the neutron is slightly heavier), roughly 1830 times the electron.
These particles all have some angular momentum, generally 1/2 or -1/2 of Planck’s reduced constant, ħ (pronounced “h-bar”).
We had also discovered that every one of these particles has an anti-particle of the same mass but opposite electric charge and spin. Bringing a particle and its anti-particle together causes a sort of mutual annihilation where the particles turn completely into energy. (Though some of the heavier particles release a mix of energy and lighter particles.) The anti-electron is also known as a positron; the others are simply anti-protons, anti-neutrons, and so on.
There was a solid theoretical argument for something called a neutrino, too (plus an anti-neutrino), but they’re hard to detect. (They did eventually get detected in the 1950s, but that’s getting ahead of things.)
Finally, there was the photon, the particle (though sometimes it behaves as a wave) of electromagnetic energy, whose spin is 1. The photon is its own anti-particle; or equivalently, it has no anti particle but plays the same role interacting with anti-particles as it does with particles.
These can be classified as follows (I’m going to leave out the anti-particles; they go into the same buckets as their corresponding particles):
bosons: Have an integer spin, and many can occupy the same quantum state: photon. You can think of these as “force carrying” particles, but only one of them was known in 1935.
fermions: Have a half-integer spin, and only one can occupy a particular quantum state: electron, neutrino, proton, neutron. These you can think of as “matter.” But you can divide these into leptons and baryons, meaning light and heavy. Electrons and neutrinos are leptons, protons and neutrons are baryons.
A brick of gold or anything else you can drop on your foot is made mostly (by weight) of baryons, and today we have occasion to call it “baryonic matter” (which implies there’s some kind of matter that is not “baryonic matter” but that’s another story for another day, soon).
Baryons, and only baryons, are subject to the strong nuclear force, which makes them stick to each other in nuclei in spite of the fact that protons repel each other electrically with simply ridiculous amounts of force. The strong force has to do with alpha radioactive decay.
Baryons and leptons both are subject to the weak nuclear force, as well.
The electron and proton have an electric charge, and are thus subject to the electromagnetic force as well, while the neutrino and neutron have no charge and aren’t subject to the electromagnetic force.
Finally, nuclear and particle physicists have a couple of quirks. They express energy in electron volts (eV), the amount of energy an electron gains after going through a potential of one volt. And that is exactly 1.602176634×10−19 joules.
Mass will be expressed in eV/c2, electron volts divided by c2. After all E = mc2, so dividing energy by c2 gives you a mass. When talking though, they’ll often just say the mass of such-and-such particle is so many eV and not bother saying “over see squared.” They all know what they mean, and I’m going to dispense with it here.
An electron has a mass of 511 keV (kilo electron volts, thousand electron volts). Protons and neutrons weigh in at 938.3 and 939.6 MeV (mega electron volts, million electron volts), respectively.
OK, that’s a recap!
The Muon
In 1935, Hideki Yukawa (1907-1981) took up the issue of the strong nuclear force. It seemed that there ought to be some particle that mediates it, just like photons mediate the electromagnetic force.
The strong nuclear force is very strong…over very short distances. It drops off to nothing rapidly thereafter. This could be explained if that mediating particle was unstable. If it can’t get far before it breaks down, the force it carries can’t get far either. But an even better “fit” comes from consideration of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. It allows a particle to be created from nothing, but for a very short time. In other words, the energy can be “borrowed” for a brief period of time, but the more energy that is borrowed, the shorter the term of the loan.
So a particle about 200 times the mass of the electron could be created from nothing…but would have to disappear before it had a chance to move much more than the diameter of a proton. But while it was there, it could act to “carry” the strong nuclear force.
Of course, if there’s enough energy to create the particle conventionally, it will, perhaps, stick around long enough to actually be detected.
This was an intermediate mass particle, so it was named “meson” from a Greek word meaning “middle” (also appearing in “Mesoamerica” and “Mesozoic”).
Remember what I just said about “if there’s enough energy to create the particle conventionally”? One place where there’s a lot of energy is in cosmic ray collisions with atoms in our upper atmosphere.
And lo and behold the very next year, 1936, a particle about 200 times the mass of the electron was found as the product of such collisions by Carl D. Anderson (1905-1991), the same man who had discovered the positron in 1932. This meson had a charge of -e, the same as the electron, and it decayed in about 2.2 microseconds. Which seemed a bit long (this is an eternity when dealing with subatomic particles).
Neils Bohr suggested naming the particle the “yukon” (to honor Yukawa) and in fact, for a time that’s what many called it.
But it very quickly became apparent this actually was not Yukawa’s meson. It didn’t seem to want to have anything whatsoever to do with the strong nuclear force.
The more they looked at this meson, the more it looked like it was just like a heavy, unstable electron.
In 1947 another such particle was discovered by a collaboration led by Cecil Powell in England. This, indeed was the particle Yukawa was expecting. So, to distinguish the two, this new particle was called the pi-meson, and Anderson’s discovery was called the mu-meson.
More mesons were discovered, and the mu-meson turned out to be a real oddball; its name got shortened to “muon” and that’s the name it has to this day. It’s still, basically, an overweight, unstable cousin of the electron. It seemed to have no clear role in anything at all; in fact Nobel laureate I. I. Rabi very famously quipped, “who ordered that?” (Today in our “Brandon” age where certain four letter words are acceptable for display on flags for little kids to practice phonics on, he might have said, “WTF is this?!?” only spelled out.)
Muons today are famous for being excellent proofs of time dilation. The muons generated in the upper atmosphere (tens of miles up) by cosmic rays shouldn’t live long enough to move more than about 2200 feet on average (1 foot is almost exactly one nanosecond at light speed, a microsecond is a thousand nanoseconds). Yet they regularly manage to reach us here on the ground because their “clocks” run slower at the speed they are moving. This can also be checked in particle accelerators.
As time went on, the muon’s resemblance to the electron looked stronger and stronger; it’s now classified as a lepton, not a meson. Meanwhile, as I mentioned before, we started discovering other types of mesons.
And we started discovering new types of baryons as well.
Quite a lot of both.
Mesons (minus the muon, no longer considered a true meson) and baryons together shared the characteristic of being affected by the strong nuclear force. So as a class the two together were now named “hadrons.”
By 1956, people were talking about the “particle zoo” because there were so many different kinds of hadrons known.
Now let me make one thing perfectly clear. I’m going to throw a lot of particle names at you here; but the real point of this is later on. Once you’ve seen that point…forget about these particles. They do not matter, and never will to anyone outside a particle physics lab (who have to be able to identify them if only so they can ignore them–they’re noise).
Just for instance in the 1950s a (forgettable) baryon known as the delta particle, about 25 percent heavier than protons, was discovered. Its charge was +2e, twice that of the proton! Also discovered were three other particles of the same mass, with charges +e, 0, and -e. They all had 3/2 spin (not 1/2). These ended up all being called delta particles, with symbols Δ++ , Δ+ , Δ0 , and Δ–. Physicists tended to name these particles after Greek letters but had long since run out of them and were having to double, triple, and quadruple up on them.
In fact the pi meson (now called a pion) turned out to have three varieties, π+, π0 , and π– . It turned out those delta particles would decay into combinations of pi particles, protons and neutrons (e.g., the double delta would decay into a proton and a positive pion, the neutral delta would decay into a neutron plus a neutral pion or a proton and a negative pion), and generally within about 5×10-24 seconds!
This was just one piece of it. There was an obvious question. Why was there a double positive delta particle, but no double negative delta? This turned out to be a big clue, actually.
Here’s another one. There is a (forgettable) K meson, too, discovered in 1947. (And it’s K, not kappa.) Now shortened to kaon, it, too, comes in positive, neutral, and negative forms. K+, K0 , and K–.
These lived much longer than pions or delta particles, about 1×10-8 seconds.
This longer life eventually led to the recognition of a property that simply got called “strangeness,” at the suggestion of Murray Gell-Mann (1929-2019) [yes, we’ve reached the Trump administration.] It was conserved in fast reactions that seemed to have to do with the strong nuclear force, but not in slower reactions (like the kaon’s decay) that had to do with the weak nuclear force.
We eventually found baryons that had strangeness in them too, sometimes even in double doses. No baryon (other than the proton, and (almost) the neutron) was stable, but the strange ones were less unstable than the non-strange ones.
We now had scores of baryons and mesons…all of them supposedly fundamental particles, and very little rhyme or reason to the mess. That’s why we had the “particle zoo.”
Which, maybe, reminds you of something.
It’s like the way we were finding more and more chemical elements in the 1800s, all of them fundamental entities (or so we thought), and there didn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to that mess either.
And what happened, in 1869, was the first good effort to find a way to organize them coherently, then in the 1890s, the discovery that they consisted of a handful of more basic particles.
And this is exactly what happened here.
Murray Gell-Mann (again), in 1961 found a way to organize these particles, working with their charge and their strangeness. They ended up, mostly, in groups of eight. There was a group of eight mesons with a single meson left over.
Meson octet. Particles on opposite corners of the hexagon are anti-particles of each other; the two in the center are their own anti-particles. The remaining single particle is the eta-prime, η′
The baryons came in two groups:
The baryon octet. Note the neutron and proton at the top. Things with the same strangeness are in horizontal lines. Q stands for the electric charge, and diagonals running from upper left to lower right have the same electric charge (1 for the proton and Σ+ (sigma), and so on).
There was also a baryon decuplet, where our delta particles show up:
Baryon decuplet, Delta particles have no strangeness, the Σs have one dose of strangeness, the Ξ (xi, pronounced ksee not zigh) particles have a double dose. The Ω (omega) particle was a prediction, but would have triple strangeness.
This made things tidy, but just like the periodic table, there were strong hints of an underlying order. In the case of the periodic table, it turned out to be the precise ways electron orbitals would be defined by quantum mechanics. In this case, who knew?
The Ω particle at the bottom of the decuplet was not known in 1961. Gell-Mann predicted it in 1962 because it fit the logical progression, and a very close match for it was found in 1964. This was a lot like Mendeleyev predicting gallium and germanium, so it made it look like Gell-Mann was onto something.
Gell-Mann called this schema the eightfold way (inspired by Buddhism’s “eightfold path”).
It took a few decades for chemists to understand the underlying “message” of the periodic table.
It took exactly three years for the particle physicists to make a suggestion–the one which turned out to be correct–as to what was under this scheme.
Gell-Mann, and, independently, George Zweig (1937-still alive and kicking!) came up with what turned out to be the correct answer…though it would take quite some time to prove it and flesh it out.
All of these hadrons were made of something smaller, which got named quarks. There were three kinds of quarks. An “up” quark had a +2/3 charge. A “down” quark has a -1/3 charge. And so does a “strange” quark. Strange quarks are unstable, wanting to decay into up quarks. However, they are responsible for strangeness. All quarks have 1/2 spin (though they can sometimes be “upside down” with a -1/2 net spin).
The three different kinds of quarks are called different flavors of quarks.
[Up, down, strange, flavor..and you’ll soon see color names. Note a lot of English, instead of Latin or Greek. Even the name “quark” came from a poem written in English. This is why it all seems whimsical bordering on silly sometimes. “Up” versus “proton”–the word “proton” has far more gravitas.]
So how does this work?
Baryons consist of exactly three quarks.
A proton consists of two up quarks and a down quark (uud), and if you do the math, that’s a net +1 charge. A neutron consists of an up and two down quarks (udd) and again, doing the math, that’s a net 0 charge.
The delta particles cover all four possible combinations of up and down quarks (uuu, uud, udd, ddd) and doing the math you get charges, 2, 1, 0, and -1, respectively. The difference between the proton (uud) and the delta+ particle (uud) is the spin; deltas have 3/2 spin and protons 1/2 spin. (Similarly for neutrons and the delta-0 particle.) Now why isn’t there a uuu or ddd baryon with a 1/2 spin? This is excluded on quantum-mechanical grounds; a 3/2 spin is mandatory for these combinations.
Particles with strangeness have at least one strange quark. Those Σ particles (3 of them) have one strange quark each, the remaining question is whether the other two quarks will be uu, ud, or dd (three possibilities). The natural result is the decuplet shown, where the bottom member is three strange quarks, sss, making up the Ω.
Now these baryons start to make a sort of sense. What about the mesons?
As it happens, every quark has an anti-particle of the opposite charge, so there’s an anti-up with a -2/3 charge, for instance. A meson is a quark and an anti-quark. So you could pair an up with an anti-down to create a meson with 2/3 + (- 1/3) = 1 charge, and that’s the π+. The other two forms of pions are also formed from up and down quarks/anti-quarks; the negative pion is a down and an anti-up. The neutral pion turns out to be two different things. It is either an up+anti-up or down+anti-down pair and of course the two quarks right next to their own anti-particle don’t last long at all! (Neutral pions decay in about 10-17 seconds, the others are good for about 10-8 seconds, a billion times as long.)
Running all the combinations of up, down, strange and their opposite numbers gives nine possible mesons. And more arise when you consider different combinations of spin (which will be whole numbers in this case).
Again, the point is NOT to remember this stuff more than 10-8 seconds after finishing the article (and if you remember it even that long, you’re strange), other than to remember the idea of quarks. So if your eyes are glazed over…that’s fine.
This whole theory was considered by many to be a completely abstract model with no bearing on reality, however, very similar to the Rutherford experiment with scattering alpha particles off of gold atoms, in 1968 someone was able to shoot things into protons and neutrons…and it became evident that there were things inside the proton and neutron. Still, scientists didn’t want to conclude that what was there were Gell-Mann/Zweig quarks, so they called them “partons” (nothing to do with Dolly…it’s off the word “part”).
As time went on it turned out that the quark model was correct, but there’s one more aspect to the story.
We’ve never seen a quark all by its lonesome. They seem to want to be in groups of three, or two (when one is an anti-particle). So either three quarks, or a (net) zero quarks!
Very shortly after the quark concept was introduced, Oscar W. Greenberg suggested that the strong force might actually have its own sort of charge. Except that instead of a positive and negative charge (two opposite charges, in other words) like electromagnetism, there might be three kinds of charges. Combining all three made a neutral strong charge.
Exactly like the way red, green and blue light add up to make white, but any combination of two of these will have some sort of color.
So in fact it’s now called “color charge” even though actual color has nothing to do with it. The three quarks in (say) a proton, consist of one “blue,” one “green,” and one “red” quark (and it doesn’t really matter which one is which). They add to white, no color charge.
A meson, with a quark and anti-quark, will have, say, a “red” and “anti-red” (or cyan) charge, again, net result white, no color charge. (It’s almost always called “anti-red”, “anti-green” or “anti-blue” never cyan, magenta and yellow.)
And it turns out the strong nuclear force is actually an indirect manifestation of the strong force (note: no word “nuclear”) between the quarks. In other words the proton-proton attraction within the nucleus is not the primary manifestation of the force. Rather, the strong force keeps the protons and neutrons themselves together. It’s sort of like theorizing that a rubber band seems to have a “rubber band” force to it, but then finding out what’s really at the bottom of it is electromagnetic forces between atoms and molecules in the rubber band.
The strong force is, fundamentally, carried by particles called gluons (which are bosons of zero spin). They have mass, but more importantly, they themselves have “color” are subject to the strong force, unlike photons which aren’t subject to the force they carry. So two quarks exchange virtual gluons, and the virtual gluons themselves can exchange more virtual gluons. That turned out to be a very interesting computational problem, largely aided by “Feynman diagrams” invented by Richard Feynman.
Who, by the way, hated the color names; he thought they would be confusing and even called his colleagues “idiot physicists” for using the term.
As it turns out the only force capable of changing the flavor of a quark is the weak force. And weak interactions tend to take more time (or equivalently, are less likely), which is why those strange baryons and hadrons took so long to decay: The strange quark had to change to an up quark, and that’s a slow process because it requires the weak force.
More Recent Developments
Having two quarks with -1/3 charge but only one of 2/3 charge was an imbalance that nagged at people; so almost immediately, there were suggestions there should be a fourth quark…which got the name “charm.” So there would be two “generations” of quarks: up/down made one, and charm/strange made another. This sort of matched the leptons, where there was an electron and a muon which could be considered a second generation.
Today, it’s stated that the strange quark was detected in 1968.
In 1973 a third generation was suggested, called top and bottom. (I distinctly remember hearing them called “truth” and “beauty” as a kid…and I did not realize they didn’t actually mean truth and beauty, so I just shook my head and probably at least thought the word “bullshit” at the thought that they were claiming to have found particles of actual truth and beauty. Fortunately almost no one calls them that today.)
In 1974 the charm quark was detected. The Bottom quark followed in 1977. The top quark is quite a lot more massive (about as massive as a gold atom!) and wasn’t found until 1995.
Similarly, there are three generations of “electron.” The tau particle or tauon was first speculated on in 1960, and detected in 1974-75. Its half life is about 10-13 seconds. So the stable of leptons is filling out too.
There are a couple more chapters in this story. One, I think I can disregard. The other one I can’t…but I will save it for later. Interestingly, it has to do with that odd bit about the sun only producing 1/3 of the neutrinos anticipated.
OK, now that you know what quarks are…forget the kaons, delta particles, sigmas. xis, and omegas. None of these will ever show up in your kitchen and even the pion isn’t a household word by any means. And you’re unlikely to ever see strange, charm, top and bottom quarks, either (though they’re easier to remember). Muons? Occasionally thanks to cosmic rays. Tauons? Never.
The ones that exist outside a physics laboratory or a smashup in the upper atmosphere are the first generation, the electron, up and down. Everything you see around you, everything you can drop on your foot, is made up of those. The others are exotic and evanescent. They only matter (pun intended) to particle physicists.
And cosmologists.
Obligatory PSAs and Reminders
China is Lower than Whale Shit
Remember Hong Kong!!!
Whoever ends up in the cell next to his, tell him I said “Hi.”
中国是个混蛋 !!! Zhōngguò shì gè hùndàn !!! China is asshoe !!!
China is in the White House
Since Wednesday, January 20 at Noon EST, the bought-and-paid for His Fraudulency Joseph Biden has been in the White House. It’s as good as having China in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden is Asshoe
China is in the White House, because Joe Biden is in the White House, and Joe Biden is identically equal to China. China is Asshoe. Therefore, Joe Biden is Asshoe.
But of course the much more important thing to realize:
Joe Biden Didn’t Win
乔*拜登没赢 !!! Qiáo Bài dēng méi yíng !!! Joe Biden didn’t win !!!
