Dear KAG: 20191218 Open Thread

And just in case you wonder about CLIMATE FORECAST APPLICATIONS NETWORK, LLC
It makes it VERY VERY CLEAR Judith is our enemy in SPADES!!!!

Number of Employees: 9
Woman-Owned?: Yes (Judith???)
Award Totals:
Program/Phase Award Amount ($) # of Awards
SBIR Phase I…….. $100,000.00………….. 1
(SBIR = Small Business Innovation Research)
STTR Phase I…….. $150,000.00…………… 1
STTR Phase II …… $980,932.00 …………… 1
( STTR = Small Business Technology Transfer)
2010 / SBIR / Phase I
DOD / OSD
Principal Investigator: Hai-Ru Chang, Senior Scientist / Mgr Forecast Ops
Abstract:
The proposed research takes the first steps in addressing the challenge of providing early warnings for extreme events associated with climate variability and change to support identification of potential security threats and crises. The proposed methodologies will also support adaptive management of water, energy and agricultural practices and other adaptation strategies. We propose to lay the foundation for a web-based regional risk information and early warning system based on a probabilistic multi-model ensemble forecasting scheme……
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
2012 / STTR / Phase I
DOE
Principal Investigator: Judith Curry, Dr.
abstract
Abstract:
Goals of 80% clean energy production for the United States by 2035 and 20% of the countrys power being supplied by wind energy by 2030 imply nearly a tenfold increase in wind power production. This means that the need for forecast information will extend to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. In addition to more complex issues regarding maintenance planning, energy trading of oil and gas will be influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months, and on longer time scales, future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, and the regulatory environment. CFAN will expand upon its hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme that delivers probabilistic wind forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months to deliver ensemble-based forecasts and extended range outlooks that corrects not only for model bias error, but improves the shape of the distribution to capture low wind and high wind events that are critical forecast targets for wind farms. Collectively, the Phase I evaluation and testing of forecasts on different time scales utilizing our techniques will provide an assessment of the ability to overcome the existing challenges with wind power forecasts on time scales of days to months, as well as provide a framework to improve placement of future wind farm locations. The resulting efforts of a full Phase II project will deliver a wind energy decision support tool solution that would address three key market needs: the ability to forecast reliably at ranges beyond two weeks and at high spatial resolution; better capacity planning forecasts related to extreme or ramp events on scales of days to weeks; effective planning forecasts at decadal time scales that translate accurately for localized sites. The short-term market potential of a resulting Phase II solution is estimated to be in excess of $5M.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
2013 / STTR / Phase II
DOE
Principal Investigator: Judith Curry, Dr.
Abstract:
This proposal addresses the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. There is a growing need for extended range forecast information as wind power increases its penetration into the grid. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, long-term purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provides a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of inter-annual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase I project conducted a pilot study for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The project included: assembly and evaluation of relevant data sets; development and evaluation of an ensemble prediction framework for forecasting regional wind power generation and demand on time scales from days to months; development of strategies to assess long term (decadal) changes to the regional wind power environment; and formulation of an online tool that provides decision makers with actionable information related to wind power forecasts and projections. The proposed Phase II project will further develop the capabilities begun during Phase II and extend the project to include the continental U.S. and offshore regions. The objective is to develop a commercially viable capability for the growing array of diversified users in the wind energy forecast market. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits: Customers and end-users of these products include wind farm operators, regional power providers, grid system operators, and energy sales and trading. The other target application is assessment of wind energy project feasibility, to select favorable sites where wind is strongest and year-to-year variability is minimized. Customers for such assessments are project owners, government planners, regulatory agencies, and investors.

In her own words, Judith Curry makes it clear her goal is to <b.Rebuild Trust and she is smart enough to realize the sledge hammer tactics of the likes of Joe Rom and Cook and Loony Lew do not do that. This does not however mean she is not still on board the goal of the ‘Radical Transformtion of America’ and Western civilization.

On the Credibility of Climate Research, Part II: Towards Rebuilding Trust [That is her actual goal!!!]
Judith Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology
I am trying something new, a blogospheric experiment, if you will. I have been a fairly active participant in the blogosphere since 2006….
Losing the Public’s Trust
Climategate has now become broadened in scope to extend beyond the CRU emails to include glaciergate and a host of other issues associated with the IPCC. In responding to climategate, the climate research establishment has appealed to its own authority and failed to understand that climategate is primarily a crisis of trust.…
Credibility is a combination of expertise and trust. While scientists persist in thinking that they should be trusted because of their expertise, climategate has made it clear that expertise itself is not a sufficient basis for public trust. The fallout from climategate is much broader than the allegations of misconduct by scientists at two universities. Of greatest importance is the reduced credibility of the IPCC assessment reports, which are providing the scientific basis for international policies on climate change. Recent disclosures about the IPCC have brought up a host of concerns about the IPCC that had been festering in the background: involvement of IPCC scientists in explicit climate policy advocacy; tribalism that excluded skeptics; hubris of scientists with regards to a noble (Nobel) cause; alarmism; and inadequate attention to the statistics of uncertainty and the complexity of alternative interpretations….
In my informal investigations, I have been listening to the perspectives of a broad range of people that have been labeled as “skeptics” or even “deniers”. I have come to understand that global warming skepticism is very different now than it was five years ago. Here is my take on how global warming skepticism has evolved over the past several decades.
In the 1980’s, James Hansen and Steven Schneider led the charge in informing the public of the risks of potential anthropogenic climate change. Sir John Houghton and Bert Bolin played similar roles in Europe. This charge was embraced by the environmental advocacy groups, and global warming alarmism was born….
In the first few years of the 21st century, the stakes became higher and we saw the birth of what some have called a “monolithic climate denial machine”. Skeptical research published by academics provided fodder for the think tanks and advocacy groups, which were fed by money provided by the oil industry. This was all amplified by talk radio and cable news. [If she believes that crud my opinion of her just sank]
….The often misinformed policy advocacy by this group of climate scientists has played a role in the political polarization of this issue.. The interface between science and policy is a muddy issue, but it is very important that scientists have guidance in navigating the potential pitfalls. Improving this situation could help defuse the hostile environment that scientists involved in the public debate have to deal with, and would also help restore the public trust of climate scientists.
The failure of the public and policy makers to understand the truth as presented by the IPCC is often blamed on difficulties of communicating such a complex topic to a relatively uneducated public… People have heard the alarm, but they remain unconvinced because of a perceived political agenda and lack of trust of the message and the messengers….
My own experience in making public presentations about climate change has found that discussing the uncertainties increases the public trust in what scientists are trying to convey and doesn’t detract from the receptivity to understanding climate change risks (they distrust alarmism). Trust can also be rebuilt by discussing broad choices rather than focusing on specific policies.….
And finally, the blogosphere can be a very powerful tool for increasing the credibility of climate research. “Dueling blogs” (e.g. climateprogress.org versus wattsupwiththat.com and realclimate.org versus climateaudit.org) can actually enhance public trust in the science as they see both sides of the arguments being discussed. Debating science with skeptics should be the spice of academic life, but many climate researchers lost this somehow by mistakenly thinking that skeptical arguments would diminish the public trust in the message coming from the climate research establishment. …
And finally, I hope that this blogospheric experiment will demonstrate how the diversity of the different blogs can be used collectively to generate ideas and debate them, towards bringing some sanity to this whole situation surrounding the politicization of climate science and rebuilding trust with the public.
http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/climate/towards_rebuilding_trust.html

Curry’s co-founder is Peter Webster a member of the Aspen Global Change Institute
When you pull the Aspen Global Change Institute thread things get real interesting… I feel like I am tracing Machiavelli.

Climate Communication is a non-profit science and outreach project supported by grants, including from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Climate Communication operates as a project of the Aspen Global Change Institute, a non-profit organization dedicated to furthering the scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change…
http://www.climatecommunication.org/who-we-are/about-us/

WHAT WE DO

We publicize and illuminate the latest climate research in plain language, making the science more accessible to the public and policy makers.
Examples include our primer on climate change and our feature on extreme weather and its connections to climate change. We’ve also released a report on heat waves and climate change.
← We Assist Journalists
We Support Scientists →

And guess who is on the staff of Climate Communication?
Peter Gleick
Katharine Hayhoe
Michael Mann
Jeff Masters
Michael Oppenheimer