20190830 Hurricane Dorian Storm Watch. (Updated 5:00pm)

Hat Tip to those Treepers who are closely following Hurricane Dorian. Sadie Slays has been on this story from the beginning. As the storm closes in on Florida, we’re all concerned. Smiley2 likes this link best for updates: https://spaghettimodels.com/

IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA, YOU NEED TO PREPARE.
“Basically, NHC forecast a 140-mph Cat 4 at landfall (or near to), and then the 00z run of the GFS shows Dorian coming in further south, in Broward County, and traversing nearly all the way across the state from east-to-west, before meandering through the entire peninsula for more than 48 hours.”

Sadie Slays

President Trump will be at Camp David this weekend monitoring the storm with the First Family. Vice President Pence will travel to Poland in his stead.

From Phoenix Rising ” I’m glad POTUS and family will be at Camp David this weekend……………. MARINES will guard our POTUS… keep him safe. And, POTUS has command of the situation wrt Dorian and any cr%p the Cabal is up to……… Yes, I can sleep tonight knowing this. Thank you Lord for Camp David. Link below has tons of info on the surface layout. https://whitehouse.gov1.info/camp-david/

Estimated Rainfall
Update at 8:00am on August 30th.
Latest tracking from NOAA

Again, Sadie Slays has been on this story for days. Here is the recap Sadie gave us yesterday.

== HURRICANE WATCH DAY 2 ==
Placeholder comment thread for Hurricane Dorian news that I find of interest.
Previous thread:
https://wqth.wordpress.com/2019/08/29/dear-kmag-20190829-open-topic/comment-page-1/#comment-241399
== RE-CAP FROM 8/29 ==
– The 8/29 11 pm cone has Hurricane Dorian making a direct hit on Mar-a-Lago at Category 4 strength
– This will be the first time since the JFK Administration that America will have had three straight years of major hurricane landfall (defined at Cat 3 and above).
– POTUS himself is calling this storm “bigger than Andrew.”
pic.twitter.com/ufd7tsGyAx
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2019

Sadie Slays

In case anyone was wondering – the avg forward speed of #Dorian between Day 3 and Day 5 on the @NHC_Atlantic 11pm update shows a Category 4 landfall at 4.5 mph!!! That has never happened. pic.twitter.com/PD1VAlrzir
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) August 30, 2019

4.5, eh?

Again, from Sadie Slays

Hurricane Dorian is expected to slow down and steering currents have gone absent, confounding forecasters. From Cthulhu, here is a compilation meme of some of the last Cat 3 major Florida Hurricanes plotted from 1851-2018.

HURRICANE DORIAN strengthening rapidly with minimum pressure down to 977 mb measured by Hurricane hunter aircraft with max sustained winds up to 105 mph! The updated NHC forecast now has a powerful category 4 with 140 mph sustained winds approaching central FL early next week! pic.twitter.com/tmg0TTUf5V
— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) August 30, 2019

if possible, click on the arrow (if it appears) to animate…
Unfortunately, great model agreement tonight on #Dorian making a landfall as a major hurricane near West Palm Beach TUE. Then, a turn N towards central & north FL, SE GA & the eastern portion of the Carolinas. A very dangerous & high impact event unfolding. Hope it changes! pic.twitter.com/tfqUsIID6F
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) August 30, 2019

Dorian is now tracking further south than yesterday …..
serious flooding will be an issue even in areas not directly in its path.
Cat 4 coming in.

From Smiley2

Dorian is now clipping along at 977 millibars of pressure. Millibars indicate intensity of the storm and tracking millibars indicates strengthening or weakening. Here is a list of the largest storms and their millibar pressure at impact with coastline.

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
RankHurricaneSeasonPressure
hPainHg
1Wilma200588226.05
2Gilbert198888826.23
3“Labor Day”193589226.34
4Rita200589526.43
5Allen198089926.55
6Camille196990026.58
7Katrina200590226.64
8Mitch199890526.73
Dean2007
10Maria201790826.81
Source: HURDAT[1]

Almost everyone who lives in the southeast has a family “plan” for hurricanes. When I grew up in New Orleans, had grandparents in Pensacola, and lived in Miami, the “plan” was for me to travel and get out of the way. Checklists were taped to an inside closet door. Even now that we are 350miles inland, we still have a list of friends/family whom we KNOW will travel to our house should a hurricane head their way. An exceptionally good Hurricane checklist can be found HERE: https://www.surfandsunshine.com/how-to-prepare-for-a-hurricane-with-hurricane-preparedness-checklist/

We can add things like: Make sure you do ALL your laundry NOW and refill all medications. A well stocked, expanded, home first aid kit. An extra set of blades for a chainsaw is a Godsend. Bleach and clean all the tubs in your home and fill with water before the storm hits (if you’re staying). Right now, bake – cookies, brownies, granola bars for a healthy boost…… and share with your local fireman/police. Right now, FREEZE extra water in big containers using milk jugs/2 liter bottles, etc., to make big blocks of ice. Extra propane for the grill and a big pot to boil water.

Best personal hint: We took about 100 dish clothes/wash clothes and wet them with fresh water, added a few drops of bleach, sealed them in Glad Bags and put them in the freezer. In the aftermath, we used those towels everywhere.

Many Florida residents are new to the state and we strongly encourage they prepare and/or rely on neighbors who are a little more experienced with hurricane preparations. KNOW your neighbors, you won’t get through the aftermath of a hurricane without help from a few friendly souls.

Take care, God Bless, and pay attention to the alerts. If you receive an evacuation order – then you need to LEAVE!!

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
152 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
prognosticatasaurusrex

Prayers to all. I too have extended family in Fla near Tampa. Stay alert, and if possible go to a shelter or go up north. We tried to get a flight out for an elderly family member and the price was $700 ONE WAY. Here is hoping this storm fizzles.

wheatietoo

That’s a great Tip about the frozen wash cloths!
😀👍
Baggies. Baggies. Baggies.
What did we ever do without them.
Those jumbo baggies are good for putting some changes of clean clothes in, just in case.
Glad you mentioned Smiley too…she’s been posting info & updates about this storm all week, since it first started.
🤓😊

wheatietoo

Nah, you’ve nothing to feel guilty about.
It was still uncertain about the path yesterday…and you’ve been busy with other threads.
🤗🙂

wolfmoon1776

One more tip – when you’re ready for this to be the top post, we have to pull the sticky on the daily. I wasn’t sure if you made the daily sticky intentionally or not. Sometimes that’s a good idea for a while, but inevitably any sticky has to be pulled, so just keep that in mind.

wolfmoon1776

Sorry – I just got too nervous and must moved this to the top.

SingularZoe

Thank you, Daughn, and to all of the contributers providing info and tips. My sis is vacationing in Orlando, coming home Monday morning. She was worried yesterday when I spoke with her before they left home. Of course, vacationing is a lot different than living there.

andyocoregon

Isn’t the storm predicted to make landfall on the east coast of Florida Sunday night or Monday morning?
Your sister may find it hard to leave Orlando in the midst of a Category 4 hurricane.

ozzytrumpster

Cyclone Tracey was supposed to miss Darwin in 1974. It hit Christmas Eve. At night. Ritually destroyed the city
https://images.app.goo.gl/qFHXMWohfunMFaC8A

ozzytrumpster

Virtually

TakeBackOurRepublic

We’ve learned to never rely solely on forecasted tracking as hurricanes can and will do the unexpected at the very last minute. Case in point was Irma. My son and family evacuated early from the Atlantic side of Jacksonville Beach to our house before the forecast zeroed in on landfall…..on the Gulf side nearest our house!
Hunker down is a phrase that has special meaning for everyone who lives in a hurricane zone. Prayers to all!

duchess01

PRAYER FOR COURAGE IN THE STORM
Father God:
We come to You humbly before the Throne of Grace – in the name of Jesus – we pray for Faith, Hope, and Love in the storm.
We ask You to quell our apprehension, fear, and trepidation for we know not what we will be required to do in the coming days.
We ask You to help us to prepare, secure, and bind all we must to sustain ourselves and our neighbors.
We ask You to help us to remember those who are especially in need of help – the elderly – the disabled – the sick.
We ask You to assist us with our domestic animals – to calm them and bring them to safety.
We ask You provide what we need physically, mentally, and spiritually to weather the storm.
Father – we put our Trust in You – You said You would never leave or abandon us – and we believe in Your promise.
Father – we put our Hope in You – for You have the power to fix all that is broken – and we believe in Your power.
Father – we acknowledge Your unconditional Love for us – and we believe Your Love will sustain us.
We ask it all in the Precious and Holy Name of Jesus – Amen.
Isaiah 41:10
“Fear thou not; for I am with thee: be not dismayed; for I am thy God: I will strengthen thee; yea, I will help thee; yea, I will uphold thee with the right hand of my righteousness.”
King James Version (KJV)
______________________________
Please feel free to add your petitions – God Bless and Keep All Y’all Safe!

Chris

Amen.
Thank you Duchess , Beautiful !

duchess01

Most welcome, Chris – God Bless You!!!

amplifyouredge

Amen.
We are prepared, we pray to you oh Lord, we are grateful for your blessings.
I am praying for the storm to move North and have NO landfall. With God, anything is possible.

duchess01

Oh, me, too, amp – God is in control for sure!

Plain Jane

Amen.

wheatietoo

He’s talking about it, isn’t he.
😄🤗 Precious baby.
He’s ready to go!

drillerelite

Never having even been close to needing to prepare for a hurricane I can only imagine how stressful it must be. God bless anyone in it’s path. Stay safe and we’ll be praying for y’all.

singingsoul1

drillerelite
“Never having even been close to needing to prepare for a hurricane I can only imagine how stressful it must be. God bless anyone in it’s path. Stay safe and we’ll be praying for y’all.”
____________________________________
Also praying for you and your wife dealing with mold.

drillerelite

Thank you

Gail Combs

Other suggestions:
1. WATER
After you bleach the tub Line it with a plastic Drop cloth (paint supply area of walmart) And FILL WITH WATER. That way the water stays clean and does not drain out.
Get (several) bottles of FRESH Chlorox REGULAR bleach and eye droppers for disinfecting water.
PRINT OUT DIRECTIONS:
https://www.clorox.com/how-to/disinfecting-sanitizing/disaster-preparation-and-cleanup/directions-for-disinfection-of-water/
You might want to make copies of this. You can then hand out the direction with a bottle of clorox and an eye dropper to those in need.
FUEL
2. Make sure your generator is in running condition and you have FUEL for it. Also top of the tanks on all your vehicles and get fuel for your chain saws along with bar oil and the oil added to the fuel.
3. TARPS!!!!
These can be used to patch a roof after a storm.
4. CAN GOODS
You can eat soups, dingy more stew, tuna, sardines, green beans…. Cold if you have to. Although a propane or coleman stove is nice to have. Folgers sells instant coffe and even coffee in a tea bag.
5. BLANKETS
Wash your winter blankets and place in sealed double plastic bags then in plastic totes so they stay ‘close to dry’

Concerned Virginian

Gail Combs
Thanks! If I may add, after learning the hard way —
CLOTHESLINE to tie down things.
LARGE UTILITY SCISSORS to cut the clothesline and other stuff that needs to be cut.
MANUAL CAN OPENER.
BATTERY-OPERATED LANTERNS and BATTERIES — before they’ll all gone from everywhere.
SOME CASH because the ATM’s will most likely be out.
PET FOODS, medications, carriers, leashes, water/food bowl, etc.
PACK THE CAR for potential evacuation TODAY.
PAPER ROAD MAPS in case cellphones/OnStar/GPS devices are out.
BACKUP SET OF WAYS to get a message to your family in case cellphones are out in addition to the internet.
God be with everybody in ANY of the paths predicted for this hurricane.

Gail Combs

I do not even think about rope, string or duct tape. I have a TRUNK full of rope— over flowing and a tote filled with all different colors of duct tape…. Doesn’t everyone??? 😁
Also of use are CATTLE PANELS and T posts. Cattle panels, t-posts, tarp and a rope = instant STURDY shelter of what ever legnth you need.
Cattle panels + T-post = instant enclosure for animals too (Goat panels are 4 inch X 4 inch for smaller animals)
https://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/livestock/basic-goat-shelters-zbcz1507
Wooden pallets and cement blocks can also be useful for building a quick shelter.

JW in Germany

GC is Country!
Most of my life, I have lived in suburbia mixed with a little bit of city—but there was about a year and a half period, 1977–1978, where I had the Honor of experiencing Real Country.
Homer, Michigan—I remember my parents renting a beautiful old farm house—wooden, two stories with cellar. There was a big barn and pond—my first time seeing frog eggs turn into tadpoles. Miles around only corn and soybeans.
Our nearest neighbor lived in a farmhouse at the top of the hill to the west—if you squinted your eyes as the sun was setting, you could see a tiny silhouette of the barn and house off in the distance.
Grandpa showing me how to shift gears on old Allison and John Deere tractors—my first row of plowed field. I was 11 years old. The first time I bailed hay—I discovered what REAL WORK felt like! The reward? BEER PANCAKES! They were DELICIOUS!
My Friend Butch, his father was a farmer. I would ride my bicycle 6 miles to visit their farm—sometimes overnight. Butch was a little badass—saw him beat 3 boys at once! They had it coming! He showed me how to shoot a shotgun—okay it was only a little 410.
Butch taught my Brother and I how to play marbles. Fantastic game! Life was so easy and simple.
ONE school—elementary through high school. One of the best schools I had ever been to! I have been to many.
My first time helping on a farm in the middle of the night—I will never forget the first time cleaning off a newborn piglet. Let me tell you that boar was busy—the stalls were full with sows! LOL!
My first big crush—Butch’s sister, Claudia. She taught me how to ride a horse. Kinda turned me off though when she purposely stepped barefoot into a cow patty. Hahahahaa!
My Brother and I found a stray dog—we named him Solitaire. Always trying to swim after those ducks in the pond—never learned they could simply fly away.
So many memories in a short period of time…..I could go on and on…..
Such an important part of my life! Without it—I may not be here right now understanding The Fight.

Concerned Virginian

daughnworks247
Lord yes, whoever invented duct tape should be canonized in my opinion.
Also — TODAY is the day to get the CELLAR ready (storm cellar or basement) ready in case shelter in place is done there. Get it cleaned up and stocked.
And the elderly — ESPECIALLY the frail, ill elderly — handicapped people of any age — special-needs people — if you don’t think you can absolutely take care of them and keep them safe: make the arrangements TODAY to get them (and you and/or their caregivers) to a place of safety.
And if you have relatives in a nursing home, etc. — FIND OUT what their emergency / evacuation plans are and WHEN they will implement them.

cthulhu

As a side note to those with propane grills……if unsecured outdoors, they may become projectiles. This is also true of lawn furniture, birdbaths, smokers, etc.
There is so much to do to prepare your house that it is easy to forget to prepare your yard.

Teagan

Personal experience tips (3 hurricanes)..
If you have a pool, you can “store” lawn furniture, etc. in it so it doesn’t fly away.
If you have a screen over you pool and it looks as though you are going to get the winds, either cut the screens or unfasten so wind can pass through, (learned the hard way on this one)
Cell towers DO get damaged and inoperative…be prepared. (Our land line saved us…will never get rid of it)
Places that recover power the fastest…hospitals and police/fire stations.
Pool water good to flush toilets
Bags of ice in fridge help keep things cold longer…
Trim trees as much as possible so there is little wind resistance
If you don’t have wind resistant windows, consider taping them so they will will collapse and not send glass through the house. Draw drapes if you have them for dame reason.
If you have trees or mature landscaping, chain saws are gold! We had friends that brought them from Michigan on a plane to clean up their post-hurricane mess.
We were without power for 2 weeks after EACH hurricane…in sweltering hot weather. It can really wear you down, so wishing any of you in the path of this storm the best of luck!

rayzorbak

Thanks for this article Daughn…….
In relation to the Hurricane….. Typhoons are closely related, just in the Pacific.
I was Born on the Island of Guam 57 Years ago Today and endured one of the most powerful Typhoons the Island ever saw. I am told that During this “event”, my Mom and I huddled in a corner of the Navy housing we lived in while my Dad was on Duty at the Naval Base.
Typhoon Karen was the most powerful tropical cyclone to strike the island of Guam, and has been regarded as one of the most destructive events in the island’s history. It was first identified as a tropical disturbance on November 6, 1962, well to the southeast of Truk. Wikipedia
Total fatalities: 11
Highest winds: 183 mph
Date: November 7, 1962 – November 18, 1962
Dates: Nov 7, 1962 – Nov 18, 1962
Damage: $250 million (1962 USD)

rayzorbak

And….. every year since 🙂

smiley2

Happy Birthday to you !
…and many more !
cheers ! 😀

rayzorbak

Thanks Friend

duchess01

comment image

rayzorbak

Thank You!

cthulhu

Happy happy birfday birfday!

rayzorbak

lol…. Thanx ct

andyocoregon

Geez, look at all the youngsters….. 🙂

duchess01

LOL

Chris

Happy Birthday Razor !

rayzorbak

Thanks Chris 🙂

singingsoul1

Happy Birthday Rayzor and many more 🙂

rayzorbak

Thank you too Sing.

🦋🦋bflyjesusgrl🦋🦋

Happy Birthday Razor!!! 🎈🎂 🎈Another August Angel like me and Marica!!👏👏 I knew there was a really good reason why I liked you (besides your entertainment during the Dem debates!😂😘) !!!

rayzorbak

Thanx for the BD wishes…. Like YOU too 🙂

smiley2

comment image

smiley2

here is the link to Mike’s Weather Page ….
https://spaghettimodels.com/
a terrific source of reliable info…all over the page…take yr time acclimating yrself to it, and then it will be yr go-to place during these things.
stay safe everybody.

andyocoregon

Check out how well defined the eyewall is now. That’s a real bad sign that it’s getting stronger.

phoenixrising37

Thank you Daughn, for putting up this POST…………….. many of us have relatives in Florida we worry about.
Thanks to you Smiley 2 for all your time and effort in bringing updates…
Also to Sadie Slays for her contributions.

smiley2

Florida Gov Ron De Santis…earlier today..

and also here….
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2019/08/30/ron-desantis-warns-florida-that-dorian-will-be-multi-day-event/
Dorian will be a multi-day event…
Florida Strong! <3

smiley2

These Airlines Are Waiving Rescheduling Fees Ahead Of Hurricane Dorian
https://www.foxbusiness.com/industrials/hurricane-dorian-florida-flights-rescheduling-fees
Aug 29, 2019
allowing passengers traveling through Florida & Georgia to reschedule flights for free…airlines listed in article.
FYI

smiley2

EURO and GFS (American) models are beginning to line-up with this consensus…
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1167469453778608129
local weather just mentioned that Dorian has slowed down significantly (ugh= strengthening)..
Hendry Co is encouraging voluntary evacuations

andyocoregon

You’re still gonna get wet, I’ll bet. That’s a very widespread storm. But, at least now it appears as though you’ll dodge the wind bullet.

smiley2

SWFL will get 40 mph sustained, they’re saying (locally)…but if this keeps tracking further south, we could get almost Cat 1 mph winds…like around 70 mph…depends on where it actually hits land…and when it makes that final turn north after it hits.
monster rain “event” for all of Florida.

andyocoregon

Better stay indoors. This huge storm could spawn the dreaded Sharknado! 😉

smiley2

LOL
Incredible True Story !!!
😀

smiley2

thank you, andy, for sharing that 😀 LOL
just shared it again w/ a few local crazies…
don’t worry
keep laffing

andyocoregon

Easy for me to laugh at the hurricane. It’ll never make it to Oregon.

Teagan

Andy, well, this one might not but hurricanes in Oregon are not unknown. …at least that’s what it was called in early fall of, I believe, 1959. Two high school students in my school were killed by a falling tree on the car they were in during it (the only way I would remember it.)

andyocoregon

There have been strong wind storms in Oregon, but they’ve been few and far between. The most notorious one was The Columbus Day Storm of 1962. I didn’t live here back then. But typically, they aren’t called hurricanes although some do come with hurricane force winds of 75mph or greater.
https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2016/10/portlands_storm_yardstick_colu.html

smiley2

aerial satellite…comment image

andyocoregon

Hurricanes fascinate me. But, I’m glad I never have to experience them first hand.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-08-30-hurricane-dorian-florida-southeast-bahamas-forecast

Teagan

Think, if I had to choose, I’d take a hurricane over a tornado…now those are really scary!

andyocoregon

Here’s hoping it turns north and goes right up the east coast like this one did….. 🙂comment image

smiley2

ISWYDT
Impeccable Cad ! 😀

andyocoregon

Not Guilty this time. I didn’t create that photo, ha ha. I just shared it.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
🙂

smiley2

Cadimus Cad !

andyocoregon

Cadimus: “Cadimus is a Creeco-Roman winged Faun god of compulsion, addiction and testing fate. He is the grandson of Ananke and was granted a place on Olympus after getting retribution for his own curse.”
OK, I accept that, as Chucky in S.O.A. used to say.
🙂

smiley2

Creeco….???comment image
😀

andyocoregon

WTH is a Creeco?

smiley2

you type it, honey bunch.
hey I saved a lot money on Valentine’s Day by being single !
😀

smiley2

typed it .

andyocoregon

OK, I thought that thing you posted the pic of was a Creeco.
I just copied the description of Cadimus from the Wiki encyclopedia.

wolfmoon1776

Best place for this bit of timely humor / well-wishes / encouragement from Garrison….comment image

andyocoregon

Blow hard Blowhards

smiley2

latest GFS….notice the MB’s … the millibars…comment image
what are those ?
Barometric Pressure…MB’s = the weight of the atmosphere at a particular location…
…and to help understand what that means in terms of hurricanes, read here…
Understanding Barometric Pressure In Hurricanes (article)….
https://www.rhinobldg.com/understanding-barometric-pressure-in-hurricanes/
FYI…standard, at sea level = 1013.2 MB

smiley2

comment image
true or false ?
😀

andyocoregon

Up to Cat 3 now they say. Good thing you’re on the west Florida coast.

smiley2

this thing’s gonna be a mess…can feel it…just hope it dies down significantly after landfall…
we are getting huge gusts of intermittent wind now !!
head winds strong from the east, in spurts…very sporadic…probably not even related to Dorian ?
but the wind looks totally different in a hurricane and as it approaches….entire trees rock back & forth, swaying alarmingly, birds flying everywhere…
and the ants….watch the ants…they are on the move …big time…got their suitcases & young’uns & covered wagons !

andyocoregon

Are the uncles with them?

smiley2

jeez 😀

andyocoregon

Whatever you do, don’t have nightmares of huge red ants crawling up your arm and into your bed at night. Those things are carnivorous, you know.
🙂

smiley2

thank you for that…I will try to unsee it.

andyocoregon

Chomp, Chomp, Chomp
😉

smiley2

SSSssss

andyocoregon

Yep, that too. 🙂

andyocoregon

Here y’go…..

smiley2

make it stop
😀

andyocoregon

Not enough bug spray in the world for those things.

Teagan

Wow, smiley…winds already? One of the most eerie things about hurricanes is how absolutely calm it can be, clear and sunny skies, just a few hours prior to being hit. We were out pruning trees like mad the afternoon we were hit.
Speaking of ants, one of the bad things about these storm is how many diseases the winds bring in from Africa and elsewhere via insects. Almost all the sabal palms in our area died due to insect-related disease afterwards.

andyocoregon

Oh No, smiley’s gonna get Ebola from The Congo due to the storm!
😉

smiley2

hi Teagan….the rain and thunder here yesterday were not part of Dorian…but the gusty wind, periodically from the east, is…also in the evenings sometimes, as a hurricane approaches, everything has an intensely eerie, peachy glow to it.

andyocoregon

IMO, SD can go suck rocks.

phoenixrising37

On this topic, emergency preparedness, esp. for hurricanes, he’s a good go-to resource … imho of course 😉

duchess01

These were posted on President Trump’s Twitter Feed

Sadie Slays

Looks like there’s a chance the hurricane may miss a US landfall entirely. Flooding and wind will still be a problem, but not as catastrophic. Folks in Georgia and the Carolinas need to keep an eye on this storm.
From Wunderground:
“Update: based on the 12Z Friday runs of the models, I estimate there is a 40% chance that Dorian will miss making landfall in central Florida, and instead make landfall farther north on the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian could completely miss making a U.S. landfall and recurve out to sea; I give a 20% chance of this happening. In these scenarios, Dorian would still likely cause billions in storm surge and fresh water flooding damage, though.”
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dangerous-Hurricane-Dorian-Slowly-Intensifying?cm_ven=cat6-widgetcomment image

New cone out at 5 pm EST (30 minutes from now). We’ll see what NHC’s take is on this.

Sadie Slays

I strongly recommend Tropical Tidbits’ nightly updates on the storm. Levi has a talent for explaining these complicated hurricane dynamics in a way that anyone can understand. This video is from 24 hours ago, but talked about the possibility of the hurricane going out to sea if it could be stalled long enough.

Sadie Slays
Sadie Slays

comment image
BAH

wolfmoon1776

HUMP DAY! Celebrate!

Sadie Slays

comment image
New cone. NHC has it going up the coast. Georgia and Carolinas—pay attention!

phoenixrising37

Thanks Sadie…………….. have felt all along it would be going up the coast. Hurricanes that do have a habit of getting into NC’s outer banks area. Hurricane Florence is one such storm, just last year. NC coast has had more than its share of storm damage in past decades.
https://wtvr.com/2018/09/14/hurricane-florence-jake-fri-am/
And then of course there’s my beloved coastal South Carolina.
Praying Dorian goes out to sea.

Brave and Free

Just finished putting up shutters on house and mother in-laws. Plants and patio furniture inside. Hopefully we have enough essentials in the house. Thanks to everyone for the great websites for tips on preparation as this will be the first hurricane for us. We have been through many bad snow storms, blizzards when we were snowed in for days and very bad ice storm when we lost power for over a week. House is new so it’s up to current hurricane standards, we shall see how it holds up. Being in the potential eye of storm we’re mostly worried about flooding at this point.
Stay safe everyone!

phoenixrising37

Praying for you and your family. Glad you have prepared.

amplifyouredge

If you are in a flood zone area or close enough to the beach to be affected by storm surge, make sure you listen to the local authorities and if they tell you to leave, go to the nearest shelter. Otherwise, just hunker down like the rest of us. We are 5 miles from the beach, not in a flood zone, so we are staying put. After the storm is over, and there is no power, the best thing to do is stay put; you’ll stay safe. Take care.

Brave and Free

We’re about 4 miles from the beach with the Indian river between us. Hopefully we’ll be okay, we plan on staying put. We have relatives inland farther we can go to if needed.

Brave and Free

We’re about 4 miles from the beach with the Indian river between us. Hopefully we’ll be okay, we plan on staying put. We have relatives inland farther we can go to if needed.

Sadie Slays

General storm prep tip: If you need bottled water and the grocery store shelves are bare, go to the big box office supply stores like Staples and OfficeMax. Nobody ever remembers that they sell bottled water and snacks!

Gail Combs

Tip for the NEXT Huricane. I save those big two litter soda bottles, wash them out sanitize with chlorox dry and toss into a large plastic sack. Come bad weather they get filled with tap water.

Cuppa Covfefe

Two more from Ryan Maue (couple “bowls” of spaghetti, as it were):

Still, lots of moisture. Hope folks further north are prepared…

Cuppa Covfefe

Joe Bastardi is also suggesting a turn to the north looking more possible, with weakening as well.

There’s a YouTube video there as well, but nowhere near as detailed (or complex) as his Saturday summary(ies) on http://www.weatherbell.com.
Having grown up in earthquake country, and spent some time in flood country, it seems that just about everywhere has natural disasters of some sort. Prayers for all in the storms’ path.
Here we’re just dealing with the unnatural disaster(s) known as the Greens and their “Energiewende”… Hope we have enough (and cheap enough) energy for when the next “Little Ice Age” hits…

Cuppa Covfefe

OHHHHHH NOOOOOOOESSSSS.
I didn’t know it would pull the whole thread/site/etc.
Please bin it, if possible. I only wanted the link… geesh…
(hangs empty covfefe cup in shame…). Sorry…

TheseTruths

I’m always afraid that’s going to happen when I post a Twitter link! It’s okay. 😀
I’ve had luck with clicking on the little symbol at the top right of a tweet — it says “More” when your cursor hovers over it — and choosing “Copy link to Tweet.” But I still cringe every time I post something.

Gail Combs

NEVER apologize for a Joe Bastardi thread!
Have loved Joe for years. I would subscribe to WeatherBell but they are to ‘general’ for my needs.

phoenixrising37

Graham Ledger
Tonight: The politics of #HurricaneDorian. #Democrats pray for a disaster
as #Republicans pray for those in its path.
——————————————————
I cannot wrap my mind around this. It has to be Bots going for a disaster. (DIMs don’t pray, do they? That’s harsh of me……….. BUT to WHOM would you pray, for a DISASTER? Lucifer?)
Bots, or ignorant people who have NEVER witnessed the devastation of a hurricane or read of the horror ?
And they tell us that Coastal areas in US are mostly BLUE…………. so, we are praying for the safety of DIMs?
And the DIMs are ‘praying’ for the destruction of DIMs? (As for myself, I pray for the safety of ALL.)
So convoluted…
Pray also for these lost souls who are praying FOR a disaster.

duchess01

They are the ungodly, pr – they serve another god – another spirit – the devil comes to kill, steal, and destroy – and it is he they serve – their minds have been twisted by the evil they have invited inside.
Bless those who curse you – when you curse another – that curse comes back on you!

Sadie Slays

These are the same morons who want to crash the economy just to spite the President. I doubt they have thoughts beyond what CNN tells them to think.

Cuppa Covfefe

Latest model suite update (12m) from Ryan Maue:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167613286357118978

Cuppa Covfefe

Would that it would just suck up and dispose of all the swamp creatures, and leave everything else untouched and unscathed…
“Gee, where did all the DEMONcRATs and RINOs go???”

Sadie Slays

I strongly recommend the latest video from Tropical Tidbits that explains the hurricane prediction. In short, the hurricane slows to a crawl over the weekend, which MAY provide enough time to allow other troughs to come in and move the hurricane away from shore. Unfortunately, stalling out over the Bahamas for days creates Harvey-like flood, wind, storm surge problems for the Florida coast (not to mention the people in the Bahamas are screwed).

Sadie Slays

Thank you!

Sadie Slays

Head’s up that there’s a new NHC cone coming out 11 pm EST (40 minutes from now).

Sadie Slays

What a coincidence that a new edition of “Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935” was published less than a month ago! The first edition was published 17 years ago, but for some reason, there was need publish it again this year.
Tragic fact from that book: 257 veterans were killed in the 1935 hurricane. They were sent to the Keys to build the highway and housed in tents during hurricane season. Obviously the tents were no match for the Category 5 hurricane that took an unexpected turn into the Keys. Knowing what we know now about the cabal and FDR, it wouldn’t shock me in the least if it came out that they deliberately neglected the situation so that mass death would happen.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/How-Might-Dorian-Compare-Great-Florida-Keys-Labor-Day-Hurricane-1935

Sadie Slays

1007 months between the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and today. 17. I know that a real stretch, but…

wolfmoon1776

LOL! Yeah, I’m calling numerology on that on. 😉

phoenixrising37

“What a coincidence that a new edition of “Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935” was published less than a month ago! The first edition was published 17 years ago, but for some reason, there was need publish it again this year.”
~~ Sadie
———————————————
Well there’s a 17 there 😉

gil00

Do you get any of the storm weather that far west or only when they are from in the gulf?

Sadie Slays

NEW CONEcomment image

Linda

The left is going to be so disappointed. It’s no longer crashing into Mar-a-Lago in that storm track.

Sadie Slays

Estimated precipitation. Even if Dorian doesn’t make landfall, rain and flooding is still an issue. Don’t let your guard down.comment image

phoenixrising37
wolfmoon1776

The new one is now the “sticky” featured post at the top, and this one will drift down.

wolfmoon1776

Yes! Sticky = featured post. And the most RECENTLY made sticky becomes the TOP sticky post. Much like pinned tweets or pinned Gabs (which allows multiple pinned objects, like WordPress).

wolfmoon1776

No problem! Very useful, but sometimes a PITA to turn on and off.